January 20th, 2017

Survey: Geopolitical Risk Is Now a Top Concern for Finance Professionals

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

2017risksurvey_cover-thumbnail-smGeopolitical risk is having a bigger impact on earnings than ever before — and senior management and boards are taking notice.

According to the 2017 Association for Financial Professionals Risk Survey, supported by Marsh & McLennan Companies, 49 percent of finance professionals believe their organizations are exposed to greater earnings uncertainty than they were three years ago.

In addition, 52 percent of Treasury & Finance functions are considering the impact on their organization’s growth expectations due to a geopolitical event. That’s no surprise given that 46 percent say their C-suite and board were concerned about geopolitical risk in 2016.

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January 20th, 2017

Week’s Top Stories: January 14 - 20, 2017

Posted at 7:30 AM ET

Chart: Top Ten Significant Insured Loss Events: 2016: The table lists the latest estimates for the top ten significant insured loss events for 2016.

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Further Considerations on the Hurricane “Shield” Theory: A recent New York Times article titled “Conditions That Form More Hurricanes Also Protect U.S., Study Finds” notes a hurricane “shield” for the U.S. coast during busy hurricane seasons. The article, based on recent research by James Kossin, provides valuable insight, including some notes of caution from other experts in the field, but the observations should be treated with a moment of pause.

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Guy Carpenter Reports Moderating Reinsurance Pricing Decline at January 1, 2017 Renewals: Guy Carpenter & Company reports the decline in reinsurance pricing moderated at the January 1, 2017 renewal across most classes of business and geographies, as compared to the past three renewal seasons.  Several sectors experienced increased loss activity, which had only a localized impact on pricing while capacity remained plentiful. After remaining fairly stable in 2015, dedicated reinsurance capital increased by 5 percent from January 1, 2016 to January 1, 2017 as calculated by Guy Carpenter and A.M. Best. The convergence capital segment increased by 10 percent.

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Global Risks Report 2017: The Global Risks Report 2017, produced by the World Economic Forum with support from Marsh & McLennan Companies and other partners, was published. Now in its twelfth edition, the report provides insights into the key global risks facing businesses as well as the collective view of risk experts in all sectors as to the most significant threats to global prosperity over the next decade. The Global Risks Report 2017 will inform discussions at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

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Public Sector Risk Financing Perspectives in Latin America: Globally, three of the ten most costly natural disaster events in the last 35 years occurred in total or in part in the Latin America/Caribbean region. As the region’s population, urbanization and gross domestic product concentration continues to grow, the effects of climate volatility are likely to further increase the impact of natural perils losses on economies that are already struggling. We are just now assessing the losses from Hurricane Matthew in the Caribbean. The ultimate costs of these catastrophe event responses causes a strain on public balance sheets and an increase in public debt, ultimately burdening taxpayers.

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And, You May Have Missed…

Chart: Return On Premiums For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Q3, 2016: Chart presents return on premiums for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2005 through third quarter, 2016.

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January 19th, 2017

Public Sector Risk Financing Perspectives in Latin America: Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

aidan-pope-headshot-sm21Aidan Pope, Managing Director

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In response to the continued need for post-event budget allocation, the Mexican federal government established the Fund for Natural Disasters (FONDEN) in 1996 (1). It is a financial vehicle by which the federal government provides pre-event funding from tax revenues for post-disaster response and reconstruction - it has been critical in providing the government with access to international risk transfer schemes.

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January 18th, 2017

Public Sector Risk Financing Perspectives in Latin America: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

aidan-pope-headshot-smAidan Pope, Managing Director

Contact

Globally, three of the ten most costly natural disaster events in the last 35 years occurred in total or in part in the Latin America/Caribbean region (1). As the region’s population, urbanization and gross domestic product concentration continues to grow, the effects of climate volatility are likely to further increase the impact of natural perils losses on economies that are already struggling. We are just now assessing the losses from Hurricane Matthew in the Caribbean. The ultimate costs of these catastrophe event responses causes a strain on public balance sheets and an increase in public debt, ultimately burdening taxpayers.

Continue reading…

January 17th, 2017

Further Considerations on the Hurricane “Shield” Theory

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

james-wallerJames Waller, Ph.D, Research Meteorologist

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A recent New York Times article titled “Conditions That Form More Hurricanes Also Protect U.S., Study Finds” (1) notes a hurricane “shield” for the U.S. coast during busy hurricane seasons. The article, based on recent research by James Kossin, (2) provides valuable insight, including some notes of caution from other experts in the field, but the observations should be treated with a moment of pause. Some key points to consider:

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January 16th, 2017

Chart: Top Ten Significant Insured Loss Events: 2016

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The table lists the latest estimates for the top ten significant insured loss events for 2016.

Continue reading…

January 13th, 2017

Week’s Top Stories: January 7 - 13, 2017

Posted at 7:30 AM ET

Guy Carpenter Reports Moderating Reinsurance Pricing Decline at January 1, 2017 Renewals: Guy Carpenter & Company reports the decline in reinsurance pricing moderated at the January 1, 2017 renewal across most classes of business and geographies, as compared to the past three renewal seasons.  Several sectors experienced increased loss activity, which had only a localized impact on pricing while capacity remained plentiful. After remaining fairly stable in 2015, dedicated reinsurance capital increased by 5 percent from January 1, 2016 to January 1, 2017 as calculated by Guy Carpenter and A.M. Best. The convergence capital segment increased by 10 percent.

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Managing Catastrophe Model Uncertainty, Issues and Challenges: Here we repeat our series authored by John Major, which focuses on the issues and challenges in managing catastrophe model uncertainty.

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Chart: Combined Ratio For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Q3, 2016: Chart presents combined ratio for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2005 through third quarter, 2016.

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China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS): The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) is instituting sweeping changes through its three-tiered China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) framework that will dramatically impact how (re)insurers conduct business. It will strengthen capital requirements, risk management and transparency disclosures - bringing China in line with, and in some cases overtaking, global standards. The C-ROSS framework is similar to Solvency II: three tiers focusing on quantitative, qualitative and disclosure requirements.

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Chart: Where Do (Re)insurers See Biggest Growth Opportunities?: Chart highlights the result of a survey taken of 107 insurance and reinsurance professionals conducted by Guy Carpenter at the 2016 annual meeting of the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America when asked where they see the biggest growth opportunities.

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And, You May Have Missed…

Public Sector Risk Financing Perspectives in the United States: The Market for Mortgage Credit Risk (Re)Insurance: The global financial crisis of 2008 exposed the US mortgage industry, taxpayers and the global capital markets to the full loss potential of residential mortgage credit risk. A total shakeup of the US housing sector was the result: a return to prudent underwriting criteria; market standardization in product; Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility Requirements (PMIERs); and a Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) directive that mandates government sponsored entities (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to begin transferring credit risk on the hundreds of billions of dollars of US mortgages issued each year.

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January 13th, 2017

Global Risks Report 2017

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

global-risks-report-landing-page-sm1The Global Risks Report 2017, produced by the World Economic Forum with support from Marsh & McLennan Companies and other partners, was published this week. Now in its twelfth edition, the report provides insights into the key global risks facing businesses as well as the collective view of risk experts in all sectors as to the most significant threats to global prosperity over the next decade. The Global Risks Report 2017 will inform discussions at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting next week in Davos, Switzerland.

Continue reading…

January 12th, 2017

GC Capital Ideas Top CAT-i Stories: 2016

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Here is a look back at the top CAT-i stories for the year 2016.

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January 11th, 2017

GC Capital Ideas Top Chart Room Entries: For The Year 2016

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

From one of GC Capital Ideas’ more popular categories, we highlight the top Chart Room stories viewed during the year of 2016:

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