May 3rd, 2016

Public Entities Approach to Risk Financing

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Here we review recent GC Capital Ideas posts on some of the drivers behind public entities considering new approaches to risk financing.

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May 2nd, 2016

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: April, 2016

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS): The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) is instituting sweeping changes through its three-tiered China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) framework that will dramatically impact how (re)insurers conduct business. It will strengthen capital requirements, risk management and transparency disclosures - bringing China in line with, and in some cases overtaking, global standards. The C-ROSS framework is similar to Solvency II: three tiers focusing on quantitative, qualitative and disclosure requirements.

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2. Chart: Combined Ratio For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, YE 2015: Chart presents combined ratio for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through year end 2015.

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3. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2016: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2016.

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4. Guy Carpenter Announces Senior Promotion and Appointment: Guy Carpenter & Company announced that Peter Stubbings has been promoted to CEO of the firm’s Bermuda operations, with immediate effect. In addition, Richard Keegan is to join the Bermuda team as Senior Vice President in May.

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5. Guy Carpenter Reports Stable Capital at January 1, 2016 Renewals: Guy Carpenter & Company reports that overall capital levels dedicated to reinsurance have stabilized, showing no growth for the first time in several years.  In a highly competitive environment, companies assessed broader opportunities and the rate of incoming capital slowed. However, moderate loss experience kept capacity at abundant levels for the January 1, 2016 renewals. The continued scarcity of costly catastrophe losses and more than adequate capacity led to reinsurance pricing reductions, although there are signs the rate of descent is slowing as compared to 2015.

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6. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

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7. Chart: Return On Equity For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, YE 2015: Chart presents return on equity for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through year end 2015.

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8. Chart: Source Of Earnings For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, YE 2015: Chart presents source of earnings for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite for the year end, 2015 compared to the year end, 2014.

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9. US Residual Markets: The US residual property insurance market segment is comprised of Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) Plans, Beach and Windstorm Plans and two state run insurance companies - Florida Citizens Property Insurance Company (Florida Citizens) and Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance Corporation (Louisiana Citizens). These insurance facilities grew out of the civil strife in the 1960s to ensure continued access to insurance in urban areas. Over time they have evolved and their mandate has grown beyond their urban focus. Today these facilities are significant providers of some of the most wind- and earthquake-exposed property insurance in the country.

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10. Microinsurance Consortium and Venture Incubator Announces New Name: The Microinsurance Consortium, led by a group of leading companies in the insurance industry, announced a new name for their microinsurance venture incubator (MVI) - Blue Marble Microinsurance. The consortium consists of American International Group, Inc., Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited, Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC together with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd., Old Mutual plc, Transatlantic Reinsurance Company, XL Catlin, and Zurich Insurance Group.

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April 29th, 2016

Week’s Top Stories: April 23 - 29, 2016

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

Guy Carpenter Announces Senior Promotion and Appointment: Guy Carpenter & Company announced that Peter Stubbings has been promoted to CEO of the firm’s Bermuda operations, with immediate effect. In addition, Richard Keegan is to join the Bermuda team as Senior Vice President in May.

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Transferring Public-Held Risk to the Private Sector Markets: Fiscal constraints are increasing across many developed and emerging economies amid growing catastrophic loss potential brought on by the geopolitical climate, demographic trends and global climate change. As a result, heads of government, international trade organizations and private sector risk bearers are increasing their calls to reexamine the roles and responsibilities of society to better manage these complicated risks.

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Emerging Risks: Modeling Considerations Moving Forward: Technological progress is accelerating at a rapid pace and with it are the risks and opportunities that accompany those changes in many different segments of our economy.

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Chart: Combined Ratio For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, YE 2015: Chart presents combined ratio for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through year end 2015.

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Update on China Counterparty Risk Charges for Offshore Reinsurers: China’s developing insurance market is a potential bright spot for growth in an otherwise challenging landscape for global reinsurers. Driven by a maturing economy and expected increases in household penetration ratios, property/casualty insurance premium, totaling USD 121.6 billion in 2014, is projected to increase to roughly USD 300 billion by 2030.

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And, You May Have Missed…

Cat Bond Pricing Dynamics, Fourth Quarter 2015: Pricing dynamics in the fourth quarter of 2015 were mixed, with bonds trading in different directions based on the risk level, peril exposure and relative market size rather than the market shifting categorically in one direction across all names. The typical fourth quarter “Dead Cat” market (in which bonds prior to their scheduled redemption date that have little to no remaining modeled risk exposure are still paying their full scheduled coupon) was active. Notably however, the required return for Dead Cat liquidity providers in the fourth quarter of 2015 averaged 255 basis points per annum, whereas in the fourth quarter of 2014 the required return was averaged closer to 220 basis points.

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April 28th, 2016

Emerging Risks: Modeling Considerations Moving Forward

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

william-garland-sm3Will Garland, Managing Director

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Technological progress is accelerating at a rapid pace and with it are the risks and opportunities that accompany those changes in many different segments of our economy:

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April 27th, 2016

China’s Insurance Regulatory System

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Here we review recent GC Capital Ideas posts on developments in China’s insurance regulatory system. 

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April 26th, 2016

Emerging Risks: New Product Development

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Here we review recent GC Capital Ideas posts on new product development as an emerging risk.

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April 25th, 2016

Transferring Public-Held Risk to the Private Sector Markets

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

jonathan_clark-sm1christopher-sykes-smJonathan Clark and Christopher Sykes, Managing Directors

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Fiscal constraints are increasing across many developed and emerging economies amid growing catastrophic loss potential brought on by the geopolitical climate, demographic trends and global climate change. As a result, heads of government, international trade organizations and private sector risk bearers are increasing their calls to reexamine the roles and responsibilities of society to better manage these complicated risks.

Continue reading…

April 24th, 2016

Guy Carpenter Announces Senior Promotion and Appointment

Posted at 9:39 PM ET

Guy Carpenter & Company today announced that Peter Stubbings has been promoted to CEO of the firm’s Bermuda operations, with immediate effect. In addition, Richard Keegan is to join the Bermuda team as Senior Vice President in May.

Continue reading…

April 22nd, 2016

Week’s Top Stories: April 16 - 22, 2016

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

Chart: Combined Ratio For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, YE 2015: Chart presents combined ratio for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through year end 2015.

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Public Sector Risk: Conclusion: We have seen significant growth in public sector entities transferring risk to the reinsurance market utilizing traditional risk transfer structures and alternative risk transfer structures such as collateralized reinsurance and catastrophe bonds.

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7.8 Mw Earthquake Near Ecuador Coast: A Mw 7.8 earthquake struck the Esmeralda Province near the west coast of northern Ecuador on April 16, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The quake occurred at 6:58 PM local time (23:58 UTC) about 17 miles (27 km) south-southeast of Muisne and about 106 miles (170 km) west-northwest of Quito, the capital of Ecuador.

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U.S. Southern Plains Flooding: In southeast Texas, a significant flood event has affected the Greater Houston Metro area as well as areas north and west. Heavy and persistent rainfall has produced catastrophic flooding, enabled by a slow-moving upper low and frontal boundary, together with available moisture. Record daily rainfall amounts were observed at Houston International Airport, with amounts of 15 to 18 inches reported north and west of the Houston area. National Weather Service flood and flash flood watches and warnings remain active for areas of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley and some additional rainfall is expected with thunderstorms. Media reports indicate at least seven fatalities and first responders expect this number to rise. Reports indicate that over 1,000 homes have been inundated.

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Life, Health and Longevity Emerging Risks: In the last 150 years, dramatic improvements have been made in life expectancy. Some developments such as immunizations for smallpox, polio and measles created quantum improvements, while the proliferation of better lifestyles, clean water and more nutritious diets provided gradual and continuing change. While most historical life expectancy developments resulted from improvement in children’s mortality, in the 20th century, mortality rates declined significantly for older ages.

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And, You May Have Missed…

Regulation: A World View: Financial market regulation has been under review for a number of years but the global financial crisis in 2008 made it a key priority in many countries. While the previous insurance regulatory framework did remarkably well in the protection of insurance consumers and companies during the financial crisis, the insurance industry has not been immune from these factors. Today, new and upcoming regulations are having a profound impact on companies’ balance sheets and risk management practices. Although primarily aimed at larger, global (re)insurers, the changes will impact medium and small (re)insurers as well.

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April 21st, 2016

Developing Awareness to Cyber Risk

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Here is a review of recent GC Capital Ideas posts on the developing awareness to cyber risk exposure and the impact that emerging risk can have on businesses.

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