September 27th, 2016

Longevity Risk

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The impacts to society from changes in longevity and life expectancy will be wide-ranging and incredibly difficult issues to grapple with. A 2012 International Monetary Fund (IMF) study revealed that if individuals lived three years longer than expected the cost of aging could increase by 50 percent. This translates to 50 percent of 2010 gross domestic product (GDP) in advanced economies and 25 percent of 2010 GDP in emerging economies. Globally that amounts to tens of trillions of US dollars. The United Nations expects the aggregate expenses of the elderly will double over the period between 2010 and 2050. The figure below shows the projected trend of rising life expectancy to continue in all regions of the globe regardless of economic advancement.

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September 26th, 2016

Increasing Confidence and Transparency in Your Catastrophe Risk Decisions: Part II

Posted at 1:48 AM ET

thomas_sherry_sm1james-burnett-herkes-sm1Sherry Thomas, Head of Catastrophe Management - Americas and James Burnett-Herkes, Senior Vice President

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Model Suitability Analysis (MSA)® consists of a set of standard tests and protocols that benchmark the models against independent reference data for hazard, event frequencies, damage functions, losses and historical experience. These datasets are created by independent and credible third-party research institutions that have expertise in the respective subjects. Rather than reinventing the wheel and developing models that already exist, the MSA approach evaluates the scientific underpinnings of existing models to establish confidence where warranted, and to identify areas of uncertainty. Guy Carpenter aggregates this information into our MSA Knowledge Base, and establishes standard protocols that are efficient to execute and test all models using the same standard procedure to achieve homogeneity and fairness in the process.

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September 23rd, 2016

Week’s Top Stories: Sept. 17 - 23, 2016

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

Cyber Risk: As businesses, both large and small, throughout all sectors of industry, become more and more reliant on technology to improve service efficiencies and functionalities, cyber risk has become one of the most pressing public topics addressed in corporate boardrooms and by governments across the globe. The corresponding awareness of a business’s susceptibility to a cyber-attack has grown along with a spate of high-profile attacks. Consequently, cyber risk is now an embedded feature of the global risk landscape, not only as a privacy/network liability, which is where much of the publicity has arisen, but also as a peril affecting traditional insurance lines. Therefore, preventative and post-event remediation are gaining importance as shareholders, regulators and rating agencies are increasingly focused on enterprise risk management activities for cyber risks.

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Guy Carpenter Sees Market Shift Towards Core Model Strategy: Insurers and reinsurers are increasingly adopting a core model strategy based around a detailed assessment of its capabilities, instead of the multi-model or blended approach as investment in modeling capabilities comes under pressure, says Matthew Eagle, Head of GC Analytics® - International at Guy Carpenter.

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Super Typhoon Meranti: Super Typhoon Meranti made close approach to southern Taiwan with one-minute sustained winds of 305 kilometers per hour (190 mph), among the strongest tropical cyclones on record. Meranti rendered significant flooding and wind impacts to southern Taiwan, with nearly 800 millimeters (32 inches) of rainfall for some locations. Meranti then weakened to make final landfall on Mainland China in Fujian Province with one-minute sustained winds of 170 kilometers per hour (105 mph). Meranti rendered significant flood impacts and damage to infrastructure following final landfall. At least 11 fatalities and 82 injuries have been reported.

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The Insurance Of Things & Industry 4.0 - A Matrix View: Technological progress and the accumulation of assets have not only stimulated the development of insurance products; they have in turn been nurtured by the availability of these offerings.

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Solvency II Equivalence In The International (Re)insurance Landscape: The concept of equivalence under Solvency II determines to what extent (re)insurance entities outside Europe can operate within the European Union (EU) while relying solely on their local solvency standards. The ability to operate in the EU is a significant issue that impacts multinational (re)insurance companies and groups.

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And, You May Have Missed…

Expanding Range Of Capital Sources Offers Benefits: Pricing declines continued in the insurance-linked securities (ILS) segment of alternative capital. In turn, this has prompted questions about the sustainability of lower pricing and capacity post-catastrophe event, suggesting that traditional reinsurers’ models and the traditional reinsurance and alternative capital mix of capital sources still need to evolve. Maintaining premium rate adequacy and stable capacity requires better access to the expanding sources of capital and awareness of the benefits of better risk syndication and segmentation, according to David Priebe, Vice Chairman at Guy Carpenter and Cory Anger, Global Head of ILS Origination and Structuring at GC Securities.

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*Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities LLC, a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities LLC, MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

September 22nd, 2016

Increasing Confidence and Transparency in Your Catastrophe Risk Decisions: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET
thomas_sherry_sm1james-burnett-herkes-sm1Sherry Thomas, Head of Catastrophe Management - Americas and James Burnett-Herkes, Senior Vice President

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Could you afford to find that the portfolio you just acquired in North Carolina is more exposed to hurricane than previously assumed? What if next year’s Category 2 hurricane caused a loss in excess of 15 percent of your policyholders’ surplus?  How will the changes in the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Maps impact your exposure to earthquake risk in the central and eastern United States?

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September 21st, 2016

Recognizing the Exposure Gap in Public Sector Risk

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Here we review GC Capital Ideas posts on the private sector closing the protection gap with public sector risk exposure.

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September 20th, 2016

Cyber Risk: Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

ross_christopher-smChristopher Ross, Managing Director

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As greater understanding of the cyber peril is gained, a chief concern for (re)insurers is risk aggregation. Unlike traditional property insurance where aggregation is monitored by physical locations, insurers are exposed to the possibility of a single attack or a series of attacks either against multiple insureds or a single insured (such as a cloud provider) that could lead to substantial losses across multiple geographies. While a large systemic risk has not yet materialized, it does not mean the risk is not present. The challenging part is that there is limited history and lack of data for this emerging exposure, which makes it difficult for insurers to measure cyber risk and calculate capital needs.

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September 19th, 2016

Cyber Risk: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

ross_christopher-smChristopher Ross, Managing Director

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As businesses, both large and small, throughout all sectors of industry, become more and more reliant on technology to improve service efficiencies and functionalities, cyber risk has become one of the most pressing public topics addressed in corporate boardrooms and by governments across the globe. The corresponding awareness of a business’s susceptibility to a cyber-attack has grown along with a spate of high-profile attacks. Consequently, cyber risk is now an embedded feature of the global risk landscape, not only as a privacy/network liability, which is where much of the publicity has arisen, but also as a peril affecting traditional insurance lines. Therefore, preventative and post-event remediation are gaining importance as shareholders, regulators and rating agencies are increasingly focused on enterprise risk management activities for cyber risks.

Continue reading…

September 16th, 2016

Super Typhoon Meranti

Posted at 2:07 PM ET

super_typhoon_meranti-smSuper Typhoon Meranti made close approach to southern Taiwan with one-minute sustained winds of 305 kilometers per hour (190 mph), among the strongest tropical cyclones on record. Meranti rendered significant flooding and wind impacts to southern Taiwan, with nearly 800 millimeters (32 inches) of rainfall for some locations. Meranti then weakened to make final landfall on Mainland China in Fujian Province with one-minute sustained winds of 170 kilometers per hour (105 mph). Meranti rendered significant flood impacts and damage to infrastructure following final landfall. At least 11 fatalities and 82 injuries have been reported. Our first thoughts and concerns are with those lost and directly affected by this event.

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September 16th, 2016

Week’s Top Stories: Sept. 10 - 16, 2016

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

The Insurance Of Things & Industry 4.0 - A Matrix View: Technological progress and the accumulation of assets have not only stimulated the development of insurance products; they have in turn been nurtured by the availability of these offerings.

Read the article>>


(Re)Insurers Modifying Their Behavior Ahead Of A.M. Best’s New Ratings And BCAR Criteria: The launch of A.M. Best’s (Best) new ratings and Stochastic-based Best’s Capital Adequacy Ratio (BCAR) draft criteria became an inflection point for (re)insurers worldwide. The 2016 changes represent Best’s first major overhaul in over 20 years and are leading to a growing number of changes in market behaviors across the company size spectrum. (Re)insurers are assessing their risk and capital management positions in anticipation of the impacts of Best’s new requirements even though the changes will not result in massive differences in its published ratings nor likely become effective until later in 2017, according to Eric Simpson, Managing Director and Mark Murray, Senior Vice President of Guy Carpenter.

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Guy Carpenter Sees Market Shift Towards Core Model Strategy: Insurers and reinsurers are increasingly adopting a core model strategy based around a detailed assessment of its capabilities, instead of the multi-model or blended approach as investment in modeling capabilities comes under pressure, says Matthew Eagle, Head of GC Analytics® - International at Guy Carpenter.

Read the article>>


Reinsurers Standing Firm As Insurers Look To Consolidate: As large-scale multi-line insurers enter a period of consolidation following the significant drive to rationalize long-term strategic reinsurance purchasing, recent renewal activity suggests reinsurers are now increasingly resisting shorter-term aggressive buying strategies, according to Nick Frankland, CEO of EMEA Operations and Chris Klein, Head of EMEA Strategy Management at Guy Carpenter.

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Solvency II: Greater Risk-Driven Management: On January 1, 2016, the Solvency II regulatory regime took effect. Some celebrated; others were weary from the months and years of preparation.

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And, You May Have Missed…

A Tale of Two ILS Quarters: A tale of two insurance-linked securities (ILS) quarters is the theme of the first half of 2016 and highlights the divergence of the ILS market this year.

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*Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities LLC, a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities LLC, MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

September 15th, 2016

Solvency II Equivalence In The International (Re)insurance Landscape

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

andrew-cox-951graham-jones-95lobel_myra-smeddy-vanbeneden-sm22sumner-smAndrew Cox, Managing Director; Graham Jones, Senior Vice President; Myra E. Lobel, Managing Director; Eddy Vanbeneden, Managing Director and Steven Sumner, Oliver Wyman, Actuarial Consulting

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The concept of equivalence under Solvency II determines to what extent (re)insurance entities outside Europe can operate within the European Union (EU) while relying solely on their local solvency standards. The ability to operate in the EU is a significant issue that impacts multinational (re)insurance companies and groups.

Continue reading…