Here we review the 2015 seasonal predictions for tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific and Atlantic Basins.
- Guy Carpenter Mid-Year Review Assesses Key Industry Trends
- GC Securities* Completes Catastrophe Bond Panda Re Ltd. Series 2015-1 Notes Benefiting China Property & Casualty Reinsurance Company Ltd. and China Reinsurance (Group) Corporation
- July 1 Renewals Reveal Price Declines Moderating Especially for US Wind-Exposed Programs
Any hurricane can produce wind, surge and inland flood impacts. The severity and scope of impacts is not always consistent with rating on the Saffir-Simpson scale, particularly for surge as we have seen with Katrina (2005) and Sandy (2012).
Hurricane Betsy made landfall on Key Largo with estimated winds of 125 mph (Category 3 hurricane) before entering the Gulf of Mexico in 1965.
Hurricane Audrey made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale in 1957.
2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Tropical Storms Ana And Bill Rush In On Expected Quiet Season: As with any season, a landfalling hurricane can be a serious threat regardless of seasonal outlooks for the Atlantic Basin at large.
Guy Carpenter Mid-Year Review Assesses Key Industry Trends: Guy Carpenter released its 2015 Mid-Year Report on the (re)insurance landscape. In addition to providing a brief recap of renewal activity highlighted in their release on July 9, the report assesses key industry trends, including a detailed assessment of mergers and acquisitions activity and highlights other notable themes such as cyber security risk, increased regulation and public-private partnerships.
Guy Carpenter Launches MetaRisk® ReserveTM 4.5: Guy Carpenter announced the launch of MetaRisk® ReserveTM 4.5. The latest version of this powerful reserve risk modeling solution delivers a faster and more flexible aggregation tool as well as an updated and unique predictive model for calculating Solvency II and ORSA issues.
Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre Publishes 2015 Predictions for Tropical Cyclone Formations and Landfalls: The Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), a joint initiative of the City University of Hong Kong and Guy Carpenter, and the School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, released their 2015 predictions for tropical cyclone formations and landfalls.
Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2015: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2015.
And, You May Have Missed…
Chart: Return On Revenue For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Q1 2015: Chart presents return on revenue for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through first quarter 2015.
Seasonal outlook providers note the cooler than average sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic as a key factor for a quiet season.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is signaled by sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical East Pacific, with warm “El Niño” phases and cold “La Niña” phases. The large-scale circulations associated with El Niño enhance wind shear (changing wind speed with height) in the tropical Atlantic. The enhanced wind shear disrupts tropical cyclone development, generally resulting in fewer tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. The suppressing effects of El Niño are found to be strongest in the deep tropics (1) and for African “Cape Verde” type storms.
As illustrated in the figure below, the historical proportion between basin counts and landfalls has been very volatile on an annual basis. There is only a weak correlation between hurricane counts in the Atlantic Basin and the number of U.S. landfalls. The statistical significance is a subject of some debate in the scientific community. (1)
Guy Carpenter today announced the launch of MetaRisk® ReserveTM 4.5. The latest version of this powerful reserve risk modeling solution delivers a faster and more flexible aggregation tool as well as an updated and unique predictive model for calculating Solvency II and ORSA issues.