February 24th, 2009

Verification of 2008 Northwest Pacific Basin Forecasts

Posted at 12:45 AM ET

Dr. Rebecca Cheetham, Instrat®
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Forecasts for the 2008 season were provided by the Guy Carpenter Asia Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC)1 in April and June 2008 and by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)2 in March, May, July, and August 2008. These forecasts are summarised and verified against observed tropical cyclone development below.

Using the RSMC as the source, the 2008 forecasts from both organisations overestimated tropical cyclone activity when compared with observed cyclone development, which was below normal for the Northwest Pacific in 2008. A discussion of the overestimation is presented in the paper, Verification of Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific in 2008, at http://www.cityu.edu.hk/gcacic/2008_verification.htm.

Additional Contributor:

Footnotes:

  1. Verification of Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific in 2008. January 2009. http://www.cityu.edu.hk/gcacic/2008_verification.htm.
  2. Lea, A. & Saunders, M. 2009. Summary of 2008 NW Pacific Typhoon Season and Verification of Author’s Seasonal Forecasts. http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com.

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