February 26th, 2009

Forecasts for 2009 Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season

Posted at 12:45 AM ET

Dr. Rebecca Cheetham, Instrat®
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Forecasts for the 2009 Northwest Pacific season will be issued by the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC) in April and June. Forecasts from the GCACIC are statistical predictions, with predictors drawn from a large group of indices that represent atmospheric and oceanographic conditions in the previous year up to spring of the current year. Most prominent indicators include the proxies for the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the extent of the subtropical ridge and the intensity of the India-Burma trough.1

Additional Contributor:

Footnotes:

  1. Verification of Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific in 2008, January 2009, http://www.cityu.edu.hk/gcacic/2008_verification.htm.

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Guy Carpenter’s Instrat® department provides CAT-i reports for major natural catastrophes worldwide. These reports cover catastrophes including worldwide tropical cyclones, earthquakes, major UK and European floods and any other natural event that is likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email CAT.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Instrat also provides RISK-i reports for major technological or man-made events worldwide. These reports cover risks to property, transport and life including explosions, fires, crashes, engineering disasters and terrorist attacks that are likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email RISK.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

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