The Gulf of Mexico region remains the most vulnerable to tropical cyclones making landfall in the United States this year, according to the fourth 2009 GC ForeCatTM update. With a mean forecast landfall of 0.65, 2009 is only slightly below the 1951-to-2007 average of 0.66. Florida, the Southeast, and the Northeast have below-average forecasts for the 2009 hurricane season, as well.
GC ForeCat is a product developed by Guy Carpenter in collaboration with WSI Corporation — the world’s leading provider of weather-driven business solutions — that provides pre-season hurricane landfall forecast rates for different regions in the United States. GC ForeCat revolutionizes hurricane forecasting by estimating the rate of landfall for regions along the U.S. coastline. Forecasts for four regions (Gulf, Florida, Southeast, and the Northeast) are derived with the associated likelihoods of tropical cyclones making landfall in each area. Monthly updates are anticipated through May 2009.
GC ForeCat was first developed for the 2008 hurricane season, using hurricane landfall data from 1951 to 2007 with corresponding climate/ocean data, representative of North Atlantic oscillation, Tropical Atlantic Water Temperatures, and El Nino/La Nina. The skill of this forecast has been established using historical storm seasons and “hold-one-out” analyses.
GC ForeCat will be updated using the latest climatological data on a monthly basis until the beginning of the hurricane season. Using i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform, analysts will calculate exceedance probability (EP) curves, based on vendor cat models, for client and industry exposures falling within each region. With this deeper detailed information, Guy Carpenter clients who subscribe to i-aXs now benefit from improved risk management capabilities, enabling them to manage their reinsurance purchases more effectively.
Separately, WSI also updated its 2009 Atlantic hurricane forecast. WSI now predicts that 11 named storms, six hurricanes, and two intense hurricanes will develop in 2009. WSI said the latest numbers are lower than those predicted in its December forecast (13 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes), and the reduction is due to cooler sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and a fading La Nina event in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The latest 2009 forecast numbers are relatively close to the long term average (1950-2008) of 9.8 named storms, 6.0 hurricanes and 2.5 intense hurricanes, WSI said.
Sources: Guy Carpenter, WSI Corporation
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