June 2nd, 2009

GC ForeCat May Update: 2009 U.S. Hurricane Landfall Rates

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The fifth and final 2009 GC ForeCat update was released on May 26, 2009 and is unchanged from the last update. According to the May update, the Gulf region remains most vulnerable to tropical cyclones coming shore in the United States in 2009. The rate of 0.65 for the Gulf represents the mean number of landfalling tropical cyclones in that region for the forthcoming 2009 hurricane season (compared to the 1951 to 2007 average landfall rate of 0.66). For the Southeast region, meanwhile, a forecast 0.36 mean rate of landfall has been calculated for 2009 (slightly lower than the long term average of 0.41) while the regions of Florida and the Northeast have mean landfall rates of 0.29 and 0.21, respectively.

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GC ForeCat is a product developed by Guy Carpenter in collaboration with WSI Corporation — the world’s leading provider of weather-driven business solutions — that provides pre-season hurricane landfall forecast rates for different regions in the United States. GC ForeCat revolutionizes hurricane forecasting by estimating the rate of landfall for regions along the U.S. coastline. Forecasts for four regions (Gulf, Florida, Southeast, and the Northeast) are derived with the associated likelihoods of tropical cyclones making landfall in each area. Monthly updates are anticipated through May 2009.

GC ForeCat was first developed for the 2008 hurricane season, using hurricane landfall data from 1951 to 2007 with corresponding climate/ocean data, representative of North Atlantic oscillation, Tropical Atlantic Water Temperatures, and El Nino/La Nina. The skill of this forecast has been established using historical storm seasons and “hold-one-out” analyses.

GC ForeCat will be updated using the latest climatological data on a monthly basis until the beginning of the hurricane season. Using i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform, analysts will calculate exceedance probability (EP) curves, based on vendor cat models, for client and industry exposures falling within each region. With this deeper detailed information, Guy Carpenter clients who subscribe to i-aXs now benefit from improved risk management capabilities, enabling them to manage their reinsurance purchases more effectively.

2009gcforecatlandfallmap

For more information on GC ForeCat, please click here or contact Priyantha Perera at Guy Carpenter at priyantha.perera@guycarp.com.

Sources: Guy Carpenter, WSI Corporation

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Guy Carpenter’s Instrat® department provides CAT-i reports for major natural catastrophes worldwide. These reports cover catastrophes including worldwide tropical cyclones, earthquakes, major UK and European floods and any other natural event that is likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email CAT.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Instrat also provides RISK-i reports for major technological or man-made events worldwide. These reports cover risks to property, transport and life including explosions, fires, crashes, engineering disasters and terrorist attacks that are likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email RISK.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

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