The fifth and final 2009 GC ForeCat update was released on May 26, 2009 and is unchanged from the last update. According to the May update, the Gulf region remains most vulnerable to tropical cyclones coming shore in the United States in 2009. The rate of 0.65 for the Gulf represents the mean number of landfalling tropical cyclones in that region for the forthcoming 2009 hurricane season (compared to the 1951 to 2007 average landfall rate of 0.66). For the Southeast region, meanwhile, a forecast 0.36 mean rate of landfall has been calculated for 2009 (slightly lower than the long term average of 0.41) while the regions of Florida and the Northeast have mean landfall rates of 0.29 and 0.21, respectively.
GC ForeCat is a product developed by Guy Carpenter in collaboration with WSI Corporation — the world’s leading provider of weather-driven business solutions — that provides pre-season hurricane landfall forecast rates for different regions in the United States. GC ForeCat revolutionizes hurricane forecasting by estimating the rate of landfall for regions along the U.S. coastline. Forecasts for four regions (Gulf, Florida, Southeast, and the Northeast) are derived with the associated likelihoods of tropical cyclones making landfall in each area. Monthly updates are anticipated through May 2009.
GC ForeCat was first developed for the 2008 hurricane season, using hurricane landfall data from 1951 to 2007 with corresponding climate/ocean data, representative of North Atlantic oscillation, Tropical Atlantic Water Temperatures, and El Nino/La Nina. The skill of this forecast has been established using historical storm seasons and “hold-one-out” analyses.
GC ForeCat will be updated using the latest climatological data on a monthly basis until the beginning of the hurricane season. Using i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform, analysts will calculate exceedance probability (EP) curves, based on vendor cat models, for client and industry exposures falling within each region. With this deeper detailed information, Guy Carpenter clients who subscribe to i-aXs now benefit from improved risk management capabilities, enabling them to manage their reinsurance purchases more effectively.
Sources: Guy Carpenter, WSI Corporation
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