July 16th, 2009

GCACIC Publishes Update on 2009 Tropical Cyclone Conditions

Posted at 3:00 AM ET

hurricaneThe Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, a joint initiative of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC, the leading global risk and reinsurance specialist, and the City University of Hong Kong, announced the publication of an update on 2009 tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the West North Pacific (WNP) region, based on new information for April and May 2009.According to the briefing, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific remain in neutral status, with five out of the seven primary forecasts suggesting the possible development of an El Niño event.

Click here for the GCACIC briefing.

Summary of Predictions

  • The predicted number of tropical cyclones remains roughly equivalent to Guy Carpenter’s April forecast. The final predicted number is now at 30 events, down from 31 in April’s forecast.
  • There has been no significant change in the predicted number of tropical storms in the region, which remains at 27.
  • Typhoon activity is anticipated to increase slightly, related to the recent warming of the equatorial North Pacific.
  • The number of tropical cyclones expected to make landfall over South China between July and December is expected to be three, slightly below the normal number of four. El Niño conditions in the latter part of the year should cause fewer tropical cyclones to form or be steered into the South China region.

According to Professor Johnny Chan, Director, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, “It is likely that that El Niño conditions will develop and persist throughout the remainder of 2009. Accordingly, our latest forecast predicts that both overall tropical cyclone and the number of tropical storms and typhoons should be at near-normal levels, though we could see a slight increase in the number of typhoons.”

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