August 18th, 2009

Update: Hurricane Bill

Posted at 11:59 AM ET

small-hurricanebill2Hurricane Bill is currently located approximately 810 miles (1,305 kilometers) east of the Leeward Islands and packs sustained winds of around 100 mph (160 kmph), according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Bill is travelling in a west-northwest direction and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with a gradual turn to the northwest later this week. The NHC said hurricane-force winds extend 30 miles (45 kilometers) from the centre of the storm while tropical storm-force winds extend 150 miles (240 kilometers).

Guy Carpenter, in collaboration with WSI Corporation, has developed an innovative tool that provides 10 day forecasts for tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, along with probabilities of landfall by gate for the United States. GC LiveCatTM is updated every 12 hours and a 15 hour delayed forecast is displayed in the above map. Although significant uncertainty remains in both the forecast track and intensity, GC LiveCat predicts that Bill will avoid the eastern Caribbean later this week as it maintains its general northwesterly direction. The storm is then forecast to take a more northerly route that may see it affect Bermuda by the end of the week as a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane.

hurricanebill2

Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or Instrat® representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

The GC LiveCat forecast shows Hurricane Bill is not currently expected to make landfall in the United States. The forecast sees Bill gradually taking a turn to the northeast after passing Bermuda and curving away from the US mainland. However, long term forecasts are subject to change and Guy Carpenter will continue to monitor Bill over the next 24 hours.

Sources: Guy Carpenter, WSI, National Hurricane Center, Associated Press, Reuters News, Agence France Presse

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Guy Carpenter’s Instrat® department provides CAT-i reports for major natural catastrophes worldwide. These reports cover catastrophes including worldwide tropical cyclones, earthquakes, major UK and European floods and any other natural event that is likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email CAT.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Instrat also provides RISK-i reports for major technological or man-made events worldwide. These reports cover risks to property, transport and life including explosions, fires, crashes, engineering disasters and terrorist attacks that are likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email RISK.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

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