August 26th, 2009

Tropical Storm Danny

Posted at 7:44 PM ET

small-tropical-storm-dannyTropical Storm Danny developed from an area of disturbed weather east of the Bahamas earlier today and is currently located approximately 445 miles (715 kilometers) east of Nassau. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Danny packs sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 kmph) and the storm is travelling in a northwest direction. This motion, with a decreasing forward speed, will continue over the next day or two, and a turn to the north-northwest is expected on August 28, 2009. On this track, Danny is expected to pass to the northeast of the Bahamas before approaching the east coast of the United States. The NHC said tropical storm-force winds extend 140 miles (220 kilometers) from the center of the storm.

Residents of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States have been advised to monitor the progress of the storm. The NHC said Danny could produce two to three inches (50 to 75 millimeters) of rain in central and northeastern Bahamas, with up to four inches (100 millimeters) possible in some areas. Up to two inches (50 millimeters) of rainfall is also forecast to fall in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

tropical-storm-danny

Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or Instrat® representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

Forecasters expect Danny to follow a northwesterly track today and tomorrow, maintaining its tropical storm status and staying to north and east of the Bahamas. The storm is then forecast to take a more northerly route on August 28 before curving to the northeast over the weekend. Current forecasts suggest Danny will take a similar path to its predecessor Hurricane Bill and run parallel to east coast of the United States before coming ashore in the Canadian Maritimes as a Category 1 hurricane. However, long term forecasts are subject to change and some models indicate the storm could make landfall in the United States.

Sources: National Hurricane Center, WSI, Associated Press, Reuters News, Agence France Presse

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Guy Carpenter’s Instrat® department provides CAT-i reports for major natural catastrophes worldwide. These reports cover catastrophes including worldwide tropical cyclones, earthquakes, major UK and European floods and any other natural event that is likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email CAT.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

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