August 27th, 2009

Update: Tropical Storm Danny

Posted at 11:40 AM ET

small-ts-danny-2Tropical Storm Danny is located approximately 370 miles (590 kilometers) east-northeast of Nassau in the Bahamas and packs sustained winds of around 60 mph (95 kmph), according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm is travelling in a northwest direction and this motion is expected to continue today. Danny is then forecast to take a turn to the north tomorrow with an increase in forward speed. On this track, Danny is expected to pass to the northeast of the Bahamas before approaching the east coast of the United States. The NHC said tropical storm-force winds extend 205 miles (335 kilometers) from the center of the storm.

Residents along the east coast of the United States, from the Carolinas to New England, have been advised to monitor the progress of the storm. Danny has strengthened over the past 12 hours but remains a tropical storm. Although current environmental conditions are not favorable for rapid storm intensification, Danny is expected to slowly strengthen as it moves north and current forecasts indicate Danny could reach hurricane status on August 29, 2009 as it approaches the US coastline.

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Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or Instrat® representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

Forecasters expect Danny to follow a northwesterly track today, staying to north and east of the Bahamas. The storm is then forecast to move in a more northerly route on August 28 before curving to the northeast over the weekend, taking it on a course that could take it near eastern US states as a hurricane. Danny’s first approach to land is likely to come early on August 29, when it is expected to be located off vulnerable coastal islands of North Carolina. Later in the day, the storm is predicted to be nearing the coast around Cape Cod in Massachusetts as a Category 1 hurricane. Forecasts suggest Danny will skirt New England’s coastline and pass just offshore of Massachusetts. Thereafter, Danny is expected to track across Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in Canada.

Long term forecasts are subject to change and some models indicate the storm could make landfall in the US. Parts of New England remain within the NHC’s cone of uncertainty and the centre has stated there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast track, with any deviation to the west likely to bring Danny closer to the US east coast.

Click here to read the previous update on Tropical Storm Danny >>

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Sources: National Hurricane Center, WSI, Associated Press, Reuters News, Agence France Presse

Guy Carpenter’s Instrat® department provides CAT-i reports for major natural catastrophes worldwide. These reports cover catastrophes including worldwide tropical cyclones, earthquakes, major UK and European floods and any other natural event that is likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email CAT.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

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