August 28th, 2009

Update: Tropical Storm Danny

Posted at 8:37 AM ET

small-ts-danny-3Tropical Storm Danny is located approximately 400 miles (640 kilometers) south of Cape Hatteras in North Carolina and sustained winds have decreased to around 40 mph (65 kmph), according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm is travelling in a north-northwest direction and a turn to the north with an increase in forward speed is expected today. On this track, Danny is expected to run parallel to the east coast of the United States. The NHC said tropical storm-force winds extend 205 miles (335 kilometers) from the centre of the storm.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout northward to Duck, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Elsewhere, the NHC advised residents from the Carolinas north to New England and the Canadian Maritimes to monitor the progress of the storm. The NHC also warned that large swells from Danny are expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and life threatening rip currents along the east coast of the United States during the next day or two.

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Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or Instrat® representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

The NHC said Danny remains poorly organized and is barely a tropical storm. Danny has weakened over the past 24 hours and, although some slight strengthening is forecast over the next 24 hours, current environmental conditions are not favorable for rapid storm intensification. Forecasters said Danny is now unlikely to reach hurricane status as it approaches the US coastline and the Canadian Maritimes.

The forecast track for Danny has not changed significantly over the last 24 hours, with the storm still expected to take a more northerly route today before curving to the northeast over the weekend. On this track, Danny is expected to remain offshore and track parallel to the Carolinas and New England coast. Danny’s first approach to land is likely to come early on August 29, 2009, when it is expected to be located off vulnerable coastal islands of North Carolina. Later in the day, the storm is predicted to pass just offshore of Massachusetts before tracking across Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in Canada over the weekend.

Long term forecasts are subject to change and coastal areas of New England remain within the NHC’s cone of uncertainty. However, the NHC said Danny’s strongest winds are confined to the northeast of the storm’s center.

Click here to read the previous update on Tropical Storm Danny >>

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Sources: National Hurricane Center, WSI, Associated Press, Reuters News, Agence France Presse

Guy Carpenter’s Instrat® department provides CAT-i reports for major natural catastrophes worldwide. These reports cover catastrophes including worldwide tropical cyclones, earthquakes, major UK and European floods and any other natural event that is likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email CAT.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

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