October 20th, 2009

Typhoon Lupit

Posted at 9:11 AM ET

small-typhoon-lupit1Typhoon Lupit is located approximately 690 miles (1,110 kilometers) northeast of Manila in the Philippines and is tracking west-northwest, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Lupit is currently a Category 2 typhoon and is moving at 9 mph (15 kmph) with sustained winds of around 110 mph (175 kmph).

Lupit is expected to move to the west over the next 24 hours before taking a more west-southwest route that is likely to take it towards the northern tip of Luzon in the Philippines. The JTWC said the storm is likely to intensify during this time. Although there is significant uncertainty in both the forecast track and intensity of Lupit, current forecasts indicate the storm is expected to make landfall in the northern province of Cagayan as a strong Category 2 typhoon on October 22, 2009 and move across the provinces of Apayao and Ilocos Norte. According to the JTWC forecast, Lupit is expected to weaken as it moves across northern Luzon. However, the forecast sees Lupit retaining its typhoon status as it exits the Philippines and moves into the South China Sea.

Preparations are being made in the Philippines to evacuate residents from areas in the direct path of Lupit, and hundreds of rescuers and tonnes of emergency supplies have been deployed. Lupit is expected to bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern parts of the Philippines as the region is still reeling from the devastation caused by Typhoon Ketsana and Typhoon Parma. Ketsana caused the worst flooding in 40 years in and around the capital Manila in late September, while Parma unleashed devastating landslides in northern Luzon in early October. A state of calamity remains in effect in the Philippines after more than 850 people were killed by both storms and another 8.5 million were affected.

small-typhoon-lupit

Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or Instrat® representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

The National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) said Ketsana and Parma destroyed or damaged around 158,000 buildings and the cost to infrastructure and agriculture was expected to reach 27.6 billion pesos (USD590 million). The government said this figure did not include the tens of thousands of homes and businesses that were devastated. According to the Philippine Insurers and Reinsurers Association, insurance claims stemming from Ketsana alone will cost more than 12 billion pesos (USD257 million), making it the costliest natural disaster to hit the Philippines since the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. The association said the property claims will total around 11 billion pesos (USD235 million) and the motor claims will come to 1 billion pesos (USD21 million).

In-depth scientific research into tropical cyclones across the Asia-Pacific region is provided by the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, a joint initiative between Guy Carpenter and the City University of Hong Kong. The centre was established in June 2008 to integrate academic and industry research and advance the understanding of climate-related perils and catastrophic risks across the Asia-Pacific region.

Sources: Joint Typhoon Warning Center, WSI, Agence France Presse, Reuters News, Philippine Daily Inquirer, Manila Bulletin

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Guy Carpenter’s Instrat® department provides CAT-i reports for major natural catastrophes worldwide. These reports cover catastrophes including worldwide tropical cyclones, earthquakes, major UK and European floods and any other natural event that is likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email CAT.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Instrat also provides RISK-i reports for major technological or man-made events worldwide. These reports cover risks to property, transport and life including explosions, fires, crashes, engineering disasters and terrorist attacks that are likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email RISK.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

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