October 22nd, 2009

Update: Typhoon Lupit

Posted at 11:07 AM ET

small-typhoon-lupit-2Typhoon Lupit is located approximately 360 miles (580 kilometers) northeast of Manila in the Philippines and is tracking west, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Lupit is currently a Category 1 typhoon and is moving slowly at 6 mph (10 kmph) with sustained winds of around 75 mph (120 kmph).

Lupit has weakened over the past 24 hours and its forward speed has slowed significantly. Lupit’s predicted track has also changed, and the storm is now expected move to the west over the next 24 hours before taking a west-northwest route and moving away from the northern Philippine coast. The JTWC said the storm is likely to remain a Category 1 typhoon during this time. Although there is significant uncertainty in both the forecast track and intensity of Lupit, current forecasts indicate the storm is expected to move to the north of Luzon. If Lupit follows its predicted track, forecasters said the northern Philippines will be spared the most severe winds and rainfall.

Despite the change in course, officials in the Philippines are continuing to prepare for the worst. The National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) said troops and paramedics have been deployed in northern areas with rescue boats, trucks and emergency supplies in place. More than 100 government buildings are also on standby as possible evacuation camps. Lupit’s threat to the Philippines comes as the country is still reeling from the devastation caused by Typhoon Ketsana and Typhoon Parma. The NDCC said Ketsana and Parma destroyed or damaged around 210,000 buildings and the cost to infrastructure and agriculture was expected to reach 30.3 billion pesos (USD640 million). According to the Philippine Insurers and Reinsurers Association, insurance claims stemming from Ketsana alone will cost more than 12 billion pesos (USD257 million).

typhoon-lupit-2

Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or Instrat® representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

Guy Carpenter will continue to monitor Lupit’s progress and an update to this report will be issued if the storm significantly impacts the Philippines.

In-depth scientific research into tropical cyclones across the Asia-Pacific region is provided by the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, a joint initiative between Guy Carpenter and the City University of Hong Kong. The centre was established in June 2008 to integrate academic and industry research and advance the understanding of climate-related perils and catastrophic risks across the Asia-Pacific region.

A paper on typhoon activity in the Philippines between 1902 and 2005 has been published by the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, and it can be downloaded by clicking here.

Sources: Joint Typhoon Warning Center, WSI, Agence France Presse, Reuters News, Philippine Daily Inquirer, Manila Bulletin

Click here to read the previous update on Typhoon Lupit >>

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Guy Carpenter’s Instrat® department provides CAT-i reports for major natural catastrophes worldwide. These reports cover catastrophes including worldwide tropical cyclones, earthquakes, major UK and European floods and any other natural event that is likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email CAT.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Instrat also provides RISK-i reports for major technological or man-made events worldwide. These reports cover risks to property, transport and life including explosions, fires, crashes, engineering disasters and terrorist attacks that are likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email RISK.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

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