Rates Retreat as Capital Rebounds: Global Reinsurance Renewals at January 1, 2010: Reinsurance rates for most lines of business decreased at the January 1, 2010 renewal. The Guy Carpenter World Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) Index decreased by 6 percent in response to a swift and substantial recovery in the capitalization of the reinsurance sector. The combination of the rally in investment markets, much reduced catastrophe loss activity and recessionary effects on demand resulted in an excess of supply and increased competition. This was reflected in a slow renewal in which many contracts closed very late in the season as buyers sought to gain maximum advantage. The overall movements in pricing have also occurred against a complicated background of exposure adjustments, model revisions, program changes and other market noise.
2009 Catastrophe Update: Global Insured Losses in 2009: 2009 has seen an impressive recovery from last year’s financial crisis and the uncertainty caused by losses from Hurricane Gustav and Hurricane Ike. This recovery has been driven by the easing of financial markets and low catastrophe activity. A very quiet hurricane season, coupled with relatively low losses for other weather-related events, meant insured losses reached USD24 billion in 2009, the lowest figure since 2006 and a significant fall from USD52.5 billion in 2008.
2009 Catastrophe Update: Outlook for 2010: Predictions that the El Niño phenomenon is likely to persist through the northern hemisphere winter and into spring could have a significant impact on natural hazards worldwide next year. El Niño events have historically produced floods and drought in the more impoverished regions of the world such as southern Africa and parts of South America. Prolonged dry periods may occur in Southeast Asia, Southern Africa and Northern Australia during an El Niño event, while heavy rainfall and flooding have hit Peru and Ecuador in the past. In the United States, El Niño’s potential impact includes above-average precipitation in the south, with below-average rainfall in the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
2009 Catastrophe Update: Other Significant Events of 2009: In 2009, there were frequent reminders of the risks posed by earthquakes, and it was Asia again that suffered the most when two massive earthquakes struck Indonesia and the Samoa region in the space of a day. The most deadly earthquake of the year hit southern Sumatra in Indonesia on September 30, killing more than 1,100 people. The earthquake, measuring 7.6Mw, left around 500,000 people homeless after 250,000 homes were damaged, half of them completely destroyed.
Nine Months 2009: Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite: The members of the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite (GCGRC) saw their total net income more than double to almost $10 billion thanks to strong underwriting results and a substantial recovery in asset values.
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2009 Catastrophe Update: Tropical Cyclone Activity in 2009: In direct contrast to 2008, no significant insured losses arose from tropical cyclones in 2009. In fact the 2009 hurricane season in the Atlantic was notable only for its below-average activity. For the first time in three years, no hurricanes made landfall in the United States, which explains why insured losses were substantially down in the country compared to the pervious year.