March 18th, 2010

GC ForeCat™ Predicts Above-Average Hurricane Landfall Rates in Northeast, Southeast and Florida Regions for 2010 Season

Posted at 9:55 AM ET

forecat-march-18-smallGC ForeCat is a product developed by Guy Carpenter in collaboration with WSI Corporation, the world’s leading provider of weather-driven business solutions, that provides pre-season hurricane landfall forecast rates for different regions in the United States. GC ForeCat revolutionises hurricane forecasting by estimating the rate of landfall for regions along the US coastline. Four different regions (Gulf, Florida, Southeast and Northeast - see Figure 1) are derived with associated likelihood of tropical cyclones making landfall in each area. Monthly updates are anticipated up to and including May.

The third 2010 GC ForeCat update was released on March 17 and the results are shown in Table 1 below (along with average landfall rates between 1951 and 2007). According to the March update, the Southeast region remains most vulnerable to tropical cyclones coming shore in the United States in 2010. The rate of 0.74 for the Southeast represents the mean number of landfalling tropical cyclones in that region for the forthcoming hurricane season, higher than the 1951-2007 average landfall rate of 0.41 but a decrease on last month’s forecast rate of 0.96. Notably, the forecast landfall rate for the Northeast region jumped from 0.29 in February to 0.62 in March, more than double the average of 0.29. Meanwhile, the forecasts for Florida and the Gulf regions were unchanged and continue to show landfall rates of 0.60 (above average) and 0.59 (below average), respectively.

Figure 1: Boundaries of Four GC ForeCat Regions in United States

forecat-march-18big

Table 1: GC ForeCat Landfall Rates

Region

March 2010 Forecast Landfall Rate

1951-2007 Average Landfall Rate

Gulf (coastline from Texas to Alabama-Florida border)

0.59

0.66

Florida (entire Florida coastline)

0.60

0.49

Southeast (coastline from Atlantic Florida-Georgia border to Cape Hatteras)

0.74

0.41

Northeast (coastline from Cape Hatteras to Maine)

0.62

0.29

 

GC ForeCat was first developed for the 2008 hurricane season, utilising hurricane landfall data from 1951 to 2007 together with corresponding climate/ocean data, representative of North Atlantic oscillation, tropical Atlantic water temperatures and El Niño/La Niña. The skill of this forecast has been established using historical storm seasons and “hold-one-out” analyses.

GC ForeCat will be updated using the latest climatological data on a monthly basis until the beginning of the hurricane season. Using i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform, analysts will calculate exceedance probability (EP) curves, based on vendor cat models, for client and industry exposures falling within each region. With this deeper detailed information, Guy Carpenter clients who subscribe to i-aXs now benefit from improved risk management capabilities, enabling them to manage their reinsurance purchases more effectively.

For more information on GC ForeCat, please contact Priyantha Perera at Guy Carpenter at priyantha.perera@guycarp.com.

Sources: Guy Carpenter, WSI Corporation

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Guy Carpenter’s Instrat® department provides CAT-i reports for major natural catastrophes worldwide. These reports cover catastrophes including worldwide tropical cyclones, earthquakes, major UK and European floods and any other natural event that is likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email CAT.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Instrat also provides RISK-i reports for major technological or man-made events worldwide. These reports cover risks to property, transport and life including explosions, fires, crashes, engineering disasters and terrorist attacks that are likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email RISK.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

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