Guy Carpenter Briefing Predicts Above-Average Number of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones for South China, Korea/Japan
A briefing on landfalling tropical cyclones in the South China and Korea/Japan regions issued today by Guy Carpenter’s Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), a joint initiative of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC, and the City University of Hong Kong, concludes that activity across both regions could be higher than normal in 2010.
Based on analysis of previous years and current atmospheric conditions, the GCACIC predicts a total of six landfalling events in the South China region, slightly above the average of five.
The early season (May to August) is expected to be more active than normal, with four landfalling events, while the late season (September to December) should remain within the normal range of two events.
Though 2010 is likely to be an El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral year, which would normally suggest below-average activity, an anomalous geopotential high in the Western North Pacific region could persist into the early tropical cyclone season, increasing the likelihood of landfalling storms in South China.
As the first report published by GCACIC to cover landfalling tropical cyclones in Korea and Japan, the statistical prediction for the region should be considered experimental.
Taking this caveat into consideration, GCACIC predicts the number of tropical cyclones affecting the Korea and Japan to be six for the entire 2010 season, above the normal value of four.
A potential break in the subtropical high could produce an anomalous southerly flow, helping steer tropical cyclones toward Korea and Japan and making the higher-than-normal prediction plausible.
Professor Johnny Chan, Director, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, stated “This year, in addition to our analysis of Southern China, we have extended our landfall forecast to include Korea and Japan. We hope that this broader forecast will be useful across the region as companies, governments and other entities prepare for typhoon-related disasters.”
David Lightfoot, Managing Director, Guy Carpenter & Company, added “The Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre continues to break new ground with valuable research on climate-related perils. The addition of Japan and Korea to its series of landfalling typhoon predictions marks an important new milestone, furthering the insurance industry’s base of scientific knowledge and fostering a more general understanding of tropical storm activity in the region.”