August 27th, 2010

Update: Tropical Storm Earl

Posted at 9:06 AM ET

earl-2-smallTropical Storm Earl is located approximately 1,430 miles (2,300 kilometers) east of the northern Leeward Islands and packs sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 kmph), according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Earl is currently traveling in a westerly direction and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days as the storm strengthens. The NHC said tropical storm-force winds extend 85 miles (140 kilometers) from the center of the storm.

Forecasters expect the storm to maintain its general course until early next week, when Earl is forecast to take a more northwesterly track. This route will see Earl continue to move across the mid-Atlantic and pass to the north of the Leeward Islands. The official NHC prediction has Earl strengthening over the 5-day forecast range, with forecasters expecting the storm to intensify into a category 1 hurricane on August 29. Further strengthening is predicted thereafter as the storm moves into a favorable environment for intensification. Earl is taking a more southerly track to Hurricane Danielle, the second tropical cyclone of the 2010 season, meaning forecasters expect it to continue to move across warm waters and become a major hurricane by the middle of next week.

earl-2-big

Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or Instrat® representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

Earl poses no immediate threat to land and the NHC expects the storm to take a more northerly track towards the end of the 5-day forecast period, similar to the route taken by Hurricane Danielle. However, long-term forecasts are subject to change and it still remains unclear at this stage whether the storm will impact the United States, Bermuda or the Caribbean. Guy Carpenter will continue to closely monitor Earl’s progress and update this report on August 30.

Sources: National Hurricane Center, WSI, Associated Press, Agence France Presse, Reuters News

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Guy Carpenter’s Instrat® department provides CAT-i reports for major natural catastrophes worldwide. These reports cover catastrophes including worldwide tropical cyclones, earthquakes, major UK and European floods and any other natural event that is likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email CAT.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Instrat also provides RISK-i reports for major technological or man-made events worldwide. These reports cover risks to property, transport and life including explosions, fires, crashes, engineering disasters and terrorist attacks that are likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email RISK.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or Instrat® representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

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