September 3rd, 2010

Week’s Top Stories: August 28 - September 3, 2010

Posted at 11:00 AM ET

Guy Carpenter’s Financial Intelligence Team: Top Stories, 2010 Year to Date:  Here we highlight the top stories from Guy Carpenter’s Financial Intelligence Team that appeared on GCCapitalIdeas.com in 2010.

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Update: Hurricane Earl: Earl has re-intensified into a category four hurricane, with the center of the storm presently located around 410 miles (660 kilometers) south of Cape Hatteras in North Carolina and 870 miles (1,400 kilometers) south-southwest of Nantucket in Massachusetts, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Earl is currently packing sustained winds of 145 mph (230 kmph) and is moving towards the north-northwest at around 18 mph (30 kmph). A turn to the north is expected later today and Earl is then expected to move towards the north-northeast. On this forecast track, the NHC says Earl will pass near the North Carolina Outer Bank tonight and approach southeastern New England on Friday (September 3) as it tracks parallel to the U.S. east coast. At present, hurricane-force winds extend up to 90 miles (150 kilometers) from the center of the storm while tropical storm winds extend up to 230 miles (370 kilometers).

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Chart: Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite First Half 2010:   Combined Ratio: The weighted average of the combined ratio of the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite increased from 92.1 percent at end of year 2009 to 102.5 percent at first half 2010, the highest combined ratio since 2005, the year of the Katrina/Rita/Wilma Hurricanes.

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Update: Hurricane Danielle: Hurricane Danielle, the strongest hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, strengthened to a Category Four storm today. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the storm is currently located approximately 480 miles (770 kilometers) southeast of Bermuda. Danielle is moving in a north-westerly direction with maximum sustained winds of around 135 mph (215 kmph). The storm is predicted to turn toward the north on Saturday, with the center of the hurricane passing well east of Bermuda on Saturday night. According to the NHC, some additional strengthening is possible in the next 24 hours. Hurricane-force winds have been reported up to 60 miles (95 kilometers) from the center of the storm while tropical storm-force winds extend 205 miles (335 kilometers) from the center.

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QIS5 - Premium and Reserve Risk: Sufficient Consideration of Non-proportional Reinsurance? On July 6, 2010 the Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors published the technical specification for the latest Solvency II Quantitative Impact Study (QIS) 5. QIS 5 is scheduled to be carried out from August to November of 2010, with a report summarizing the results scheduled for release in April of 2011. Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC has observed a return to capital requirements more in line with QIS 4 and an implicit incentive for the use of an internal model regarding the non-life premium and reserve and risk.

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And, you may have missed…

Micro Risk Management: Risk, if left unmanaged by people with low incomes, may render their attempts to exit poverty more difficult. It may also increase the likelihood of a return or new entrance to poverty for those who hover just above the poverty line (see previous posting), and may increase the chances of personal loan default for the minority of low-income individuals with current access to microcredit (small value loans usually provided to help the entrepreneurial poor to develop microenterprises).

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