September 17th, 2010

Typhoon Fanapi

Posted at 9:03 AM ET

fanapi-correct-smallFanapi developed on September 14 to become the 11th named storm of the West Pacific typhoon season, and is currently located approximately 225 miles (360 kilometers) east-southeast of Taipei in Taiwan, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The storm has strengthened since its formation and became the fifth typhoon of the season on September 16. Fanapi currently packs sustained winds of around 86 mph (148 kmph) and the storm is expected to strengthen over the next 48 hours. Fanapi is slowly tracking northwest at 3 mph (6 kmph) and the JTWC currently expects the storm to make landfall in Taiwan on September 19 as a category 2 typhoon.

According to the JTWC, Fanapi is forecast to maintain its northwest motion over the next 12 hours, before shifting to a more westerly direction and heading towards Taiwan. The JTWC’s latest forecast indicates Fanapi will strengthen over the next 48 hours and reach a peak intensity of a category 2 typhoon prior to making landfall in Taiwan early on September 19 (UTC) with sustained winds of around 100 mph (160 kmph). Although there is significant uncertainty associated with the forecast track and the exact landfall location, the models are in good agreement that Fanapi will hit Taiwan. Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau (CWB) expects the storm to come ashore between the counties of Yilan and Hualien. Northern and central regions of Taiwan are expected to be subjected to hurricane-force winds and virtually the entire island is expected to experience tropical storm force-winds. The typhoon is forecast to weaken as it crosses Taiwan and exits into the Taiwan Strait. Current forecasts suggest Fanapi will weaken into a tropical storm before it makes landfall in China on September 20 to the east of Zhangzhou City (population of around 4.3 million) in southern Fujian Province.

fanapi-correct-big

Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or Instrat® representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

According to EQECAT, Fanapi’s landfall point in Taiwan will determine the storm’s impact. EQECAT currently expects Fanapi to make landfall in a sparsely populated area of Taiwan, limiting insurable losses to lower than USD200 million. The CWB said it is likely to issue sea alerts for Fanapi later today. Emergency services in China are also preparing for the typhoon’s approach.

Sources: Joint Typhoon Warning Center, WSI, Central News Agency, Xinhua News Agency, Taipei Times, Reuters News, Platts Commodity News

Click here to register for e-mail updates from GC Capital Ideas >>

Guy Carpenter’s Instrat® department provides CAT-i reports for major natural catastrophes worldwide. These reports cover catastrophes including worldwide tropical cyclones, earthquakes, major UK and European floods and any other natural event that is likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email CAT.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Instrat also provides RISK-i reports for major technological or man-made events worldwide. These reports cover risks to property, transport and life including explosions, fires, crashes, engineering disasters and terrorist attacks that are likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email RISK.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or Instrat® representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

AddThis Feed Button
Bookmark and Share


Related Posts