September 24th, 2010

Tropical Storm Matthew

Posted at 9:28 AM ET

matthew-small-092410Tropical Storm Matthew, the thirteenth named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, developed on September 23 in the western Caribbean Sea and is currently located approximately 230 miles (375 kilometers) east-southeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Matthew currently packs sustained winds of around 50 mph (85 kmph). The storm is travelling in a westerly direction, and a gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected over the next 48 hours. On this forecast track, Matthew is expected to be near or over northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras later today. The NHC said tropical storm-force winds extend 45 miles (75 kilometers) from the center of the storm.

The NHC has issued a hurricane warning for coastal areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The coast of Belize has also been placed under a hurricane watch while a tropical storm warning is in effect from Limon in Honduras to the Guatemala border. Forecasters said that up to 15 inches (380 millimeters) of rainfall is expected over parts of Nicaragua and Honduras. The NHC warned the heavy rain could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. The NHC added that a storm surge is expected to produce some coastal flooding near and to the north of where the center of Matthew makes landfall.

matthew-big-092410

Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or Instrat® representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

Forecasters said tropical storm-conditions are expected to affect coastal areas of Nicaragua and Honduras this afternoon. According to the NHC forecast, Matthew is expected to make landfall near the Nicaragua/Honduras border within the next 24 hours as a tropical storm. The storm is then forecast to move across northern regions of Honduras before exiting back into the Caribbean Sea and making a second landfall in Belize. Matthew is expected to intensify into a strong tropical storm as it nears the Belize coastline. Following landfall in Belize, the NHC says Matthew is expected to take a turn to the north and weaken over the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. However, long-term forecasts are subject to change and there is considerable uncertainty associated with Matthew’s forecast track. Indeed, some models suggest Matthew could curve into the Gulf of Mexico while others suggest the storm will continue to track west over Central America. Guy Carpenter will closely monitor Matthew’s progress over the next few days and update this report on September 27.

Sources: National Hurricane Center, WSI, Associated Press, Reuters News, Agence France Presse

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Guy Carpenter’s Instrat® department provides CAT-i reports for major natural catastrophes worldwide. These reports cover catastrophes including worldwide tropical cyclones, earthquakes, major UK and European floods and any other natural event that is likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email CAT.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Instrat also provides RISK-i reports for major technological or man-made events worldwide. These reports cover risks to property, transport and life including explosions, fires, crashes, engineering disasters and terrorist attacks that are likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email RISK.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or Instrat® representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

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