October 22nd, 2010

Tropical Storm Richard

Posted at 10:09 AM ET

richard-smallTropical Storm Richard became the seventeenth named storm of the 2010 hurricane season after it developed in the Caribbean Sea on October 21. The storm is located approximately 235 miles (380 kilometers) south-southeast of the Cayman Islands and packs sustained winds of around 40 mph (65 kmph), according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Richard is currently nearly stationary in the Caribbean Sea and little forward motion is expected today. A slow westward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected tomorrow. A general west-northwest track is forecast thereafter and Richard is expected to strengthen into a hurricane over weekend before making landfall in Belize on October 25. The NHC said tropical storm-force winds extend 105 miles (165 kilometers) from the center of the storm, predominantly to the north and east.

The NHC has issued a tropical storm watch for Honduras, from the Nicaragua/Honduras border westward to Limon. The NHC also said that interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of the storm. Forecasters warned Richard is expected to dump heavy rain on Honduras over the next 24 hours, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

richard-big

Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or Instrat® representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

The latest NHC forecast has Richard taking a turn to the west-northwest on October 24, on a path that is expected to see the storm move across the northwest Caribbean Sea towards northern Belize. The NHC long-term forecast has Richard making landfall around 25 miles (40 kilometers) north of Belize City as a category 1 hurricane on October 25. The storm is then expected to move across northern Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico before emerging in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on October 26as a tropical depression. Some long range models suggest Richard could then take a turn to the northeast in the Gulf of Mexico and head towards Florida next week. However, there is considerable uncertainty associated with Richard’s forecast track and intensify. Guy Carpenter will closely monitor the progress of the storm over the weekend and update this report on October 25.

Sources: National Hurricane Center, WSI, Associated Press, Reuters News, Agence France Presse

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Guy Carpenter’s Instrat® department provides CAT-i reports for major natural catastrophes worldwide. These reports cover catastrophes including worldwide tropical cyclones, earthquakes, major UK and European floods and any other natural event that is likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email CAT.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Instrat also provides RISK-i reports for major technological or man-made events worldwide. These reports cover risks to property, transport and life including explosions, fires, crashes, engineering disasters and terrorist attacks that are likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email RISK.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or Instrat® representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

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