June 7th, 2011

Verification of Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Australian region in 2010/11

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Since the 2009/10 season, the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC) at City University of Hong Kong has been issuing real-time forecasts of the annual number of tropical cyclones affecting the Australian region and its sub-region. The prediction for the eastern Australian region is also included in the 2010/11 season. These are all statistical predictions with predictors drawn from a large group of indices that represent the atmospheric and oceanographic conditions during the pre-season. This report reviews the success of the forecasts.

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