June 30th, 2011

Update: Tropical Storm Arlene

Posted at 7:52 AM ET

arlene-2-smallTropical Storm Arlene made landfall near Cabo Rojo in Mexico’s Veracruz State at around 09:00 UTC earlier today with sustained winds of around 65 mph (100 kmph), equivalent to a strong tropical storm, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Arlene has since moved inland and is currently located around 45 miles (70 kilometers) north-northwest of Tuxpan, Mexico and 45 miles (70 kilometers) south-southeast of Tampico, Mexico. The center of the storm is expected to continue moving inland over mainland Mexico today. Arlene is expected to weaken within the next 24 to 36 hours, and to dissipate by Friday as it moves over the mountains of Central Mexico. The NHC said tropical storm-force winds extend 140 miles (220 kilometers) from the center of the storm.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the coast of northeastern Mexico (from Barra de Nautla south to Palma Sola). The NHC said Arlene could produce 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 millimeters) of rain over the Mexican states of Tamaulipas, Veracruz and eastern San Luis Potosi, with the possibility of 15 inches over mountainous terrain. The NHC warned the heavy rainfall could cause life threatening flash floods and mudslides. A threat of storm surge remains along the immediate coast near and to the north of Cabo Rojo, which could raise water levels by as much as 3 feet (0.9 meters) above normal tide levels.

arlene-2-big

Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or GC Analytics (SM) representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

Veracruz governor Javier Duarte stated there are no major problems, and they expect to be clear of the storm by midday Thursday. Authorities in Tamaulipas, Veracruz and San Luis Potosi took precautions by closing schools, mobilizing emergency medical units and preparing evacuation shelters. Mexico’s navy and army opened 398 shelters and continue to monitor rivers for possible flooding. Mexico’s national weather service reported 6 inches (150 millimeters) of rain had fallen over a 24-hour period in northern Veracruz. Civil protection authorities have reported fallen tree branches and power outages, but the majority of coastal towns have escaped serious damage.

Mexico is a top oil exporter to the United States with almost all of its exports originating in the Gulf of Mexico, yet no major disruptions of Mexican oil production is expected. U.S. oil companies stated Arlene was too far south and too weak to affect operations at U.S. Gulf of Mexico refineries, offshore platforms and drilling rigs.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. Several forecasters, including AccuWeather, the Colorado State University (CSU), NOAA and Weather Services International (WSI), expect the 2011 hurricane season to see above-average activity. The most recent forecasts are outlined in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Summary of Hurricane Forecasts for 2011

 

Total Named Storms (>39 mph)

Hurricanes (>74 mph)

Major Hurricanes (>111 mph)

Average storm development (based on data from 1950 – 2009)

10

6

2

AccuWeather (released 4 June)

15

8

4

CSU (released 1 June)

16

9

5

NOAA released (19 May)

12-18

6-10

3-6

WSI (released 22 June)

15

8

4

 

Guy Carpenter will closely monitor Arlene’s progress and update this report as needed.

Sources: National Hurricane Center, WSI, Associated Press, Reuters News, Agence France Presse, Dow Jones News, AccuWeather, CSU, NOAA

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Guy Carpenter publishes CAT-i reports for major natural catastrophes worldwide. These reports cover catastrophes including worldwide tropical cyclones, earthquakes, major UK and European floods and any other natural event that is likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email CAT.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Guy Carpenter compiles RISK-i reports for major technological or man-made events worldwide. These reports cover risks to property, transport and life including explosions, fires, crashes, engineering disasters and terrorist attacks that are likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email RISK.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

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