July 22nd, 2011

Week’s Top Stories: Jul 16 -22, 2011

Posted at 10:00 AM ET

Guy Carpenter Forms Alliance with EagleEye Analytics To Help Insurers Optimize Risk Selection and Pricing:  Guy Carpenter & Company announced its alliance with EagleEye Analytics, Inc., the leading provider of world-class predictive analytics solutions to the property and casualty insurance industry.

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Market in Transition at July 1, 2011 Reinsurance Renewals, According to Guy Carpenter: The July 1, 2011 reinsurance renewals revealed a market that continues to be in transition.

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Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness:  Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

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Typhoon Ma-on: Typhoon Ma-on made landfall in Tokushima Prefecture on the western main island of Shikoku on July 19 as a strong tropical storm before re-intensifying into a category 1 typhoon as it brushed southern Honshu, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Wind gusts of around 100 mph (160 kmph) were reported and rainfall accumulations of up to 120 centimeters (47 inches) prompted authorities to warn of possible landslides and floods. Following landfall, Ma-on started to weaken and move in an easterly direction that is expected to see the storm curve away from southern Honshu into the open waters.

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Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre City University of Hong Kong Updated Tropical Cyclone Predictions: This briefing updates predictions issued by the Guy Carpenter Asia Pacific Climate Impact Centre City University of Hong Kong (GCACIC) of the annual number of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific and the number of TCs making landfall in South China and the Korea and Japan region. These updates are made based on new information for the months of April and May 2011.

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Long Tail Liabilities and Reserve Volatility: Dynamic Reserve Model (DRMTM): The convergence of a variety of pressure points at this time is leading to a set of unique circumstances that present opportunities around business strategy and capital allocations for the insurance industry. Future inflation is one of the pressure points. Inflation and uncertainty about its extent and timing is a function of untested but powerful monetary and fiscal policy actions. In addition to inflation’s potential effect on insurer liability management there is also an impact on the volatility of assets backing the liabilities. A reignition of the kind of severe inflation last seen in the 1970s is most likely not factored into any current insurer management practices for establishing reserves or setting capital levels.

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