August 25th, 2011

Update: Hurricane Irene

Posted at 4:42 PM ET

GC Editor

irene-6-smallHurricane Irene is currently located approximately 105 miles (170 kilometers) north of Nassau in the Bahamas and 610 miles (980 kilometers) south of Cape Hatteras in North Carolina, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm packs sustained winds of around 115 mph (185 kmph), equivalent to a category 3 hurricane. Irene is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours, potentially reaching category 4 status as it approaches the southeastern coast of the United States. Irene is currently traveling in a north-northwest direction, and will continue this movement through tonight before taking a turn towards the north by early Friday. On this forecast track, Irene is expected to move over the northwestern Bahamas today and pass well offshore of Florida’s east coast tomorrow. The storm is expected to brush the North Carolina coast on Saturday before heading towards northeastern regions of the United States. The NHC said Irene is now a dangerous storm, with hurricane force winds extending 70 miles (110 kilometers) from the center of the storm and tropical storm force winds extending 290 miles (465 kilometers).

A hurricane warning is in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas. A hurricane watch has also been issued for the North Carolina coast, from north of Surf City to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including the Pamlico, Albemarle, and Currituck Sounds. Hurricane force winds are still occurring in the northwestern Bahamas, but should begin to diminish later today. The NHC said Irene is expected to bring up to 12 inches (305 millimeters) of rain to the Bahamas over the next 24 hours. Storm surge warnings have also been issued, with waves up to 11 feet (3.5 meters) above normal tide levels expected over parts of the Bahamas. The NHC added that the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surf swells generated by Irene are also likely to hit parts of the southeastern United States today, generating life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Tropical storm-force winds along the coast of North and South Carolina are possible by late Friday.

irene-6-big

Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or GC Analytics (SM) representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

On its current path, the NHC said Irene is expected to continue to move over the northwestern Bahamas today. Irene’s intensity is expected to strengthen as it moves through the region and could become a category 4 hurricane in the next 24 hours. Current forecasts show Irene approaching the east coast of North Carolina on Saturday as a major hurricane, with the rest of the United States eastern seaboard in its path. The NHC’s director, Bill Reade, predicted that Irene would weaken to a category 2 storm after hitting North Carolina on Saturday. Irene would then move through Delaware, Maryland, and coastal regions of Virginia on Sunday. At this pace, and on its current track, Irene could move into New York and parts of New England on Monday.

U.S. emergency officials are urging millions of residents from the Carolinas to the New England area to monitor Irene. North Carolina authorities have expanded evacuation orders to include more than 200,000 tourists and locals in three coastal counties. With the densely populated New York City in Irene’s path, possible hurricane evacuations are being considered. New York City mayor, Michael Bloomberg, stated he was prepared to order evacuations from low-lying areas if necessary. Bloomberg expects to make the decision by late Friday. Possible areas to be evacuated include neighborhoods along the coast, such as Battery Park City in lower Manhattan, Coney Island in Brooklyn and Far Rockaway in Queens. Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator, Craig Fugate, cautioned that Irene is likely to impact well inland. Fugate stated that areas well away from the coasts of North Carolina to New England could expect 5 to 10 inches (13 to 25 centimeters) of rain and tropical storm-force winds. Long-term forecasts are subject to potentially large errors in both track and intensity and any deviation in Irene’s forecast path could significantly change the potential landfall point, with the NHC cone of uncertainty now including all coastal U.S. states north of the Carolinas. AIR Worldwide (AIR) currently estimates that around USD2.4 billion of insured exposure is located in New York’s coastal counties alone, according to reports.

Irene has already caused significant damage in the Bahamas after it became only the third storm since 1866 to cross the entire length of the island chain, from the southeast to the northwest. Although the capital of Nassau was only affected by tropical storm conditions, extensive damage has been reported elsewhere as the storm left a trail of destruction. Reports said wind gusts of up to 150 mph (240 kmph) damaged properties, downed trees and power lines and caused widespread power cuts in the Bahamas. Officials said communities on Acklins and Crooked islands were devastated, with an estimated 90 percent of the homes in two settlements severely damaged or destroyed. Authorities are also expecting major damage on the islands of Rum Cay, Eleuthera and Cat Island, according to reports. AIR said significant roof damage is likely to buildings subjected to category 3 hurricane wind speeds. It added that business interruption losses may also be significant given the large number of hotels across the Bahamas. Although the full extent of damage has yet to be assessed, there have been no immediate reports of major injuries or deaths in the area. Irene’s damaging winds and heavy rain also hit the Turks and Caicos Islands. Officials reported widespread damage as the severe weather ripped roofs off properties, flooded roads and downed power lines.

Sources: National Hurricane Center, WSI, Associated Press, Reuters News, Agence France Presse, AIR Worldwide, EQECAT, BBC News, CNN News, Insurance Day

Click here to read the previous update on this event >>

Click here to register for e-mail updates from GC Capital Ideas >>

Guy Carpenter publishes CAT-i reports for major natural catastrophes worldwide. These reports cover catastrophes including worldwide tropical cyclones, earthquakes, major UK and European floods and any other natural event that is likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email CAT.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Guy Carpenter compiles RISK-i reports for major technological or man-made events worldwide. These reports cover risks to property, transport and life including explosions, fires, crashes, engineering disasters and terrorist attacks that are likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email RISK.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Category: Property

Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC Terms and Conditions of Use

PLEASE READ THESE TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF SERVICE (“TERMS”) BEFORE USING THIS SITE.

By continuing to access or use this site, or any service on this site, you signify your acceptance of the TERMS. From time to time, Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC (“Guy Carpenter”) may modify the TERMS. Accordingly, please continue to review the TERMS whenever accessing or using this site. Your use of this site, or any service on the site, after the posting of modifications to the TERMS will constitute your acceptance of the TERMS, as modified. If, at any time, you do not wish to accept the TERMS, you may not use the site. Any terms or conditions proposed by you that are in addition to or which conflict with the TERMS are expressly rejected by Guy Carpenter and shall be of no force or effect.

1. User Assent to Terms and Conditions of Service

You represent that you have read and agree to be bound by the TERMS for GCCapitalIdeas.com. You further agree: (i) to comply with U.S. law regarding the transmission of any data obtained from the Service (as defined herein) in accordance with the TERMS; (ii) not to use the Service for illegal purposes; and (iii) not to interfere or disrupt networks connected to the Service.

2. Disclaimer

All content provided on this Web site is based upon information which we believe to be reliable and should be understood to be general insurance information only. It is not intended to be taken as advice with respect to any individual situation and cannot be relied upon as such. Consult your reinsurance/insurance advisors with respect to individual coverage issues.

Guy Carpenter makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, with respect to the accuracy or reliability of the content contained on this Web site. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any historical, current or forward-looking statements. Guy Carpenter undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any historical, current or forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, research, future events or otherwise.

Statements concerning, tax, accounting, legal or regulatory matters should be understood to be general observations based solely on our experience as reinsurance brokers and risk consultants, and may not be relied upon as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice which we are not authorized to provide. All such matters should be reviewed with your own qualified advisors in these areas.

3. Intellectual Property

This Web site, including, but not limited to, text, content, photographs, video, audio, and graphics (the “Service”), is protected by copyrights, trademarks, service marks, international treaties and/or other proprietary rights and laws of the U.S. and other countries. The Service is also protected as a collective work or compilation under U.S. copyright and other laws and treaties. All individual articles, columns and other elements making up the Service are also copyrighted works. You agree to abide by all applicable copyright and other laws, as well as any additional copyright notices or restrictions contained in the Service.

4. Restrictions on Use

You may not use the Service for any illegal purpose or in any manner inconsistent with the TERMS. You agree to use the Service solely for the use and benefit of your own organization, and not for resale or other transfer to, or use by or for the benefit of, any other person or entity. You agree not to use, transfer, distribute or dispose of any information contained in the Service in any manner that could compete with the business of Guy Carpenter. You acknowledge that the Service has been developed, compiled, prepared, revised, selected and arranged by Guy Carpenter and others (including certain other information sources) through the application of methods and standards of judgment developed and applied through the expenditure of substantial time, effort and money and constitutes valuable intellectual property and trade secrets of Guy Carpenter and such others. You agree to protect the proprietary rights of Guy Carpenter and all others having rights in the Service during and after the term of this agreement and to comply with all reasonable written requests made by Guy Carpenter or its suppliers of content, equipment or otherwise (“Suppliers”) to protect their and others’ contractual, statutory and common law rights in the Service. You agree to notify Guy Carpenter in writing promptly upon becoming aware of any unauthorized access or use of the Service by any party or of any claim that the Service infringes upon any copyright, trademark or other contractual, statutory or common law rights.

5. Further Restrictions on Use

You may not copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to, create derivative works from, transmit or in any way exploit any part of the Service, except that you may download material from the Service and/or make print copies for use within your organization, provided that all copies retain all copyright and other proprietary notices. The analysis and presentation included in the Service may not be recirculated, redistributed or published by you without Guy Carpenter’s prior written consent. Modification of the Service’s content would be a violation of Guy Carpenter’s copyright and other proprietary rights. Additionally, you may not offer any part of the Service for sale or distribute it over any other medium including but not limited to over-the-air television or radio broadcast, a computer network or hyperlink framing on the internet without the prior written consent of Guy Carpenter. The Service and the information contained therein may not be used to construct a database of any kind. Nor may the Service be stored (in its entirety or in any part) in databases for access by you or any third party or to distribute any database services containing all or part of the Service. You may not use the Service in any way to improve the quality of any data sold or contributed by you to any third party. Furthermore, you may not use any of Guy Carpenter’s names or marks in any manner that creates the impression such names or marks belong to or are associated with you or imply any endorsement by Guy Carpenter, and you acknowledge that you have no ownership rights in and to any of these names or marks. You will not use the Service, the information contained therein or any of Guy Carpenter’s names or marks in unsolicited mailings or spam material and will not spam or send unsolicited mailings to any person or entity using the Service.

6. License

You acquire no rights or licenses in or to the Service and materials contained therein other than the limited right to utilize the Service in accordance with the TERMS.

7. Rights Reserved

All present and future rights in and to trade secrets, patents, copyrights, trade names, trademarks, service marks, databases, know-how and other proprietary rights of any type under the laws of any governmental authority, domestic or foreign, including rights in and to all applications and registrations relating to the Service (the “IP Rights”) shall, as between you and Guy Carpenter, at all times be and remain the sole and exclusive property of Guy Carpenter. All present and future rights in and title to the Service (including the right to exploit the Service and any portions of the Service over any present or future technology) are reserved to Guy Carpenter.

8. Disclaimer and Limitation of Liability

You agree that your use of the Service is at your sole risk and acknowledge that the Service and anything contained therein, including, but not limited to, content, services, goods or advertisements (the “Items”) are provided “AS IS” and that Guy Carpenter makes no warranty of any kind, express or implied, as to the Items, including, but not limited to, merchantability, noninfringement, title or fitness for a particular purpose or use. Guy Carpenter does not warrant that the Service is compatible with your equipment or is free of errors or viruses, worms or “Trojan horses” and is not liable for any damage you may suffer as a result of such destructive features. You agree that Guy Carpenter, its Suppliers and its third-party agents shall have no responsibility or liability for: (i) any injury or damages, whether caused by the negligence of Guy Carpenter, its employees, subcontractors, agents, Suppliers or otherwise arising in connection with the Service; or (ii) any fault, inaccuracy, omission, delay or any other failure in the Service caused by your computer equipment or arising from your use of the Service on such equipment. The content of other Web sites, services, goods or advertisements that may be linked to the Service is not maintained or controlled by Guy Carpenter. Guy Carpenter is therefore not responsible for the availability, content or accuracy of other Web sites, services or goods that may be linked to, or advertised on, the Service. Guy Carpenter does not: (a) make any warranty, express or implied, with respect to the use of the links provided on, or to, the Service; (b) guarantee the accuracy, completeness, usefulness or adequacy of any other Web sites, services, goods or advertisements that may be linked to the Service; or (c) make any endorsement, express or implied, of any other Web sites, services, goods or advertisements that may be linked to the Service. Guy Carpenter is also not responsible for the reliability or continued availability of the telephone lines and equipment you use to access the Service. You understand that Guy Carpenter and/or third-party contributors to the Service may choose at any time to inhibit or prohibit their content from being accessed under the TERMS.

9. Limitation of Liability

UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, NEGLIGENCE, SHALL GUY CARPENTER, ITS SUPPLIERS OR ITS THIRD-PARTY AGENTS BE LIABLE TO YOU OR ANY THIRD PARTY FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, SPECIAL, PUNITIVE OR EXEMPLARY DAMAGES EVEN IF AN AUTHORIZED REPRESENTATIVE OF GUY CARPENTER HAS BEEN ADVISED SPECIFICALLY OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES, ARISING FROM USE OF OR INABILITY TO USE THE SERVICE OR ANY LINKS OR ITEMS ON THE SERVICE OR ANY PROVISION OF THE TERMS, SUCH AS, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, LOSS OF REVENUE OR ANTICIPATED PROFITS OR LOST BUSINESS. (Applicable law may not allow the limitation or exclusion of liability or incidental or consequential damages.)

10. Representations and Warranties

You represent, warrant and covenant that you: (i) have the power and authority to enter into this agreement; (ii) are at least eighteen (18) years old; (iii) shall not use any rights granted hereunder for any unlawful purpose; and (iv) shall use the Service only as set forth in these TERMS.

11. Indemnification

You agree, at your own expense, to indemnify, defend and hold harmless Guy Carpenter and its employees, representatives, Suppliers and agents, against any claim, suit, action or other proceeding, to the extent based on or arising in connection with your use of the Service, or any links on the Service, including, but not limited to: (i) your use or someone using your computer’s use of the Service; (ii) a violation of the TERMS by you or anyone using your computer; (iii) a claim that any use of the Service by you or someone using your computer infringes any IP Right (as herein defined) of any third party, or any right of personality or publicity, is libelous or defamatory, or otherwise results in injury or damage to any third party; (iv) any deletions, additions, insertions or alterations to, or any unauthorized use of, the Service by you or someone using your computer; or (v) any misrepresentation or breach of representation, warranty or covenant made by you contained herein. You agree to pay any and all costs, damages and expenses (including reasonable attorneys’ fees) and costs awarded against or incurred by or in connection with or arising from any such claim, suit, action or proceeding.

12. Termination

Either you or Guy Carpenter may terminate this agreement with or without cause at any time and effective immediately. You may terminate by discontinuing use of the Service and destroying all materials obtained from the Service. This agreement will terminate immediately without notice from Guy Carpenter if Guy Carpenter determines, in its sole discretion, that you have failed to comply with any provision of these TERMS. Upon termination by you or upon notice of termination by Guy Carpenter , you must promptly destroy all materials obtained from the Service and any copies thereof. Sections 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11, 12, and 13 shall survive any termination of this agreement.

13. Governing Law

These TERMS shall be governed and construed in accordance with the laws of the United States of America and the State of New York, without giving effect to conflicts-of-law principles thereof. You agree to submit to the personal jurisdiction of the state and federal courts located in New York County with respect to any legal proceedings arising out of this agreement and waive any objection to the propriety or convenience of venue in such courts. If any provision of the TERMS is found by a court of competent jurisdiction to be invalid or unenforceable, such provision shall be enforced to the maximum extent permissible and the other provisions of the TERMS shall remain in full force and effect.

14. Access Outside the United States

If you choose to access the Service from outside the United States, you are responsible for compliance with foreign and local laws. Software from the Service may be subject to United States export controls that prohibit downloading, exportation or re-exportation: (i) into (or to a national or resident of) Cuba, Iraq, Libya, Iran, Syria, Sudan, or any other country to which the U.S. has embargoed goods; or (ii) to anyone on the U.S. Treasury Department’s Table of Deny Orders. By using the Service, you represent and warrant that you are not located in, controlled by or a national or resident of any such country or on any such list.

15. Miscellaneous

You acknowledge that Guy Carpenter has the right to change the content or technical specifications of any aspect of the Service at any time at Guy Carpenter’s sole discretion. You further accept that such changes may result in your being unable to access the Service.

16. Official Correspondence

Official Correspondence must be sent via postal mail to: Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC, 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036, Attn: Legal Department.