September 12th, 2011

Update: Tropical Storms Maria and Nate

Posted at 9:59 AM ET

maria-3-smallnate-2-smallTropical Storm Maria is currently located approximately 165 miles (270 kilometers) north of Puerto Rico, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Maria moved through the northeastern Caribbean over the weekend, subjecting parts of the northern Leeward Islands to tropical storm conditions. The storm has since moved away from the region on a northwesterly track. A gradual turn towards the north is expected over the next couple of days. On this forecast track, the NHC said Maria will continue to move away from the northeastern Caribbean and pass well to the east of the Bahamas later this week. NHC said tropical storm force winds extend 200 miles (325 kilometers) from the center of the storm. Maria currently packs sustained winds of around 60 mph (95 kmph) and little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

According to the NHC, parts of Anguilla, Barbuda and the British Virgin Islands were affected by tropical storm force winds as Maria moved through the northeastern Caribbean. However, there have been no reports for significant damage or disruption in the region. The extended NHC forecast has Maria maintaining its tropical storm status over the next couple of days before intensifying into a category 1 hurricane as it passes to the west of Bermuda on September 15. The NHC now expects the storm to take a similar path to that of Hurricane Katia and steer between the United States east coast and Bermuda later this week. Model track guidance is consistent with this forecast. However, the long term forecast suggests Bermuda could be affected by tropical storm conditions, especially if the storm moves closer to the island than currently forecast. Guy Carpenter will continue to monitor Maria’s progress this week.

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Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or GC Analytics (SM) representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

Separately, Tropical Storm Nate made landfall close to Barra de Nautla in the Mexican state of Veracruz on September 11, bringing sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 kmph) to the region, according to the National Hurricane Center. The NHC added that a storm surge of up to 3 feet (1 meter) above normal tide levels and 2 inches (50 millimeters) of rainfall accompanied the strong winds as Nate came ashore, prompting authorities to warn of a flooding and landslide threat. Nate did not intensify as expected over the weekend and remained a tropical storm as it hit the Mexican coastline. Veracruz state governor, Javier Duarte, said there were no reports of damage or serious injuries as a result of Nate.

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Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or GC Analytics (SM) representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

Offshore, Mexico’s state owned oil company, Pemex, evacuated around 500 workers from six oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico due to the bad weather. Two oil workers were also killed and a third left missing after Nate’s strong winds and heavy rain forced them to evacuate a rig off the coast of Tabasco late last week. No crude oil or natural gas production was affected in United States-regulated waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Sources: National Hurricane Center, WSI, Associated Press, Reuters News, Agence France Presse

Click here to read the previous update on Tropical Storm Maria >>

Click here to read the previous update on Tropical Storm Nate >>

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Guy Carpenter publishes CAT-i reports for major natural catastrophes worldwide. These reports cover catastrophes including worldwide tropical cyclones, earthquakes, major UK and European floods and any other natural event that is likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email CAT.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Guy Carpenter compiles RISK-i reports for major technological or man-made events worldwide. These reports cover risks to property, transport and life including explosions, fires, crashes, engineering disasters and terrorist attacks that are likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email RISK.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

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