September 29th, 2011

Asia Typhoon Models

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

RMS RiskLink v11.0 (SP2)

RMS launched its Hong Kong typhoon model several years ago and expanded its coverage to China in 2011. Unlike other vendor models, RMS’s update offers modeling with demand surge and many secondary modifiers.

AIR CLASIC/2 v12.5

In late 2010, AIR released its Southeast Asia typhoon model covering wind and precipitation induced flooding in Hong Kong, Philippines and Taiwan. The model uses a single unified stochastic catalog with other countries modeled in the region - Japan, South Korea and China. Disaggregation of province level exposure data can now be done at a finer level than county in the new version.

EQECAT World Cat Enterprise v3.16

In 2010, EQECAT released its first basin-wide typhoon model for Asia. Previously, only country-specific models were available, and they did not produce flood losses. Vulnerability functions were also updated. In 2011, the updated model, v3.16, allows users to model wind with and without flooding for all countries. This option previously existed only for Japan in v3.15.

Guy Carpenter Perspective on Typhoon Model Changes

The most notable change is the emergence of the RMS model for China typhoon. The markets for Chinese-insured exposures generally use CATrader and CLASIC/2 to share analysis results. Our clients are interested in the new RMS modeled results, and, so far, we have seen higher loss results for return periods greater than 50 years.

Reliance on modeled losses for China typhoon will be limited until the models are more mature. Some programs from this region have been priced based on claims experience, which are generally lower than the modeled results.

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