October 10th, 2011

Hurricane Jova

Posted at 11:43 AM ET

jova-smallHurricane Jova is now a major category 3 hurricane following rapid strengthening since it formed in the Northeast Pacific Ocean on October 6. According to the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) the eye of hurricane Jova is currently located around 265 miles (430 kilometers) to the southwest of the busy port city of Manzanillo in Colima state, Mexico.

Storm Update

According to the NHC, Jova is currently traveling to the east at around 5 miles per hour (7 kilometers per hour), packing sustained winds of around 120 miles per hour (195 kilometers per hour). On the NHC forecast track, a turn towards the northeast is expected on Monday night, followed by a turn towards the north-northeast on Tuesday, with some additional strengthening forecast over this time. The NHC expects the center of Jova to be nearing the coast of Mexico as a category 3 hurricane on the afternoon of October 11. Hurricane force winds currently extend 15 miles (30 kilometers) from the center of Jova, with tropical storm force winds extending 90 miles (150 kilometers) from the center of the storm.

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Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or GC Analytics (SM) representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

Warnings and Alerts

A hurricane warning is currently in effect for Punto San Telmo and extends northward to Cabo Corrientes in Mexico. A tropical storm warning has been issued for Lazaro Cardenas and this extends northward to the south of Punta San Telmo in Mexico. The swells generated by Jova will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico today, causing dangerous surf and rip current conditions.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coastal tropical storm and hurricane warning areas by Tuesday morning and hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coastal hurricane warning areas by the afternoon. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where Jova makes landfall, accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Jova is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches (13 - 25 centimeters) over the states of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco with amounts of up to 15 inches (38 centimeters) possible in some places. The heavy rainfall could be accompanied by flash floods and mudslides.

Preparations

According to reports, at least 100 emergency shelters have been open since Sunday in the state of Jalisco for people who could be affected by the storm. Food, cots and blankets have also been distributed. In addition, heavy machinery has been placed in strategic locations throughout Jalisco. Reports say that more than 300 soldiers have been deployed and that the Marines in Puerto Vallarta are also on alert.

Although Mexico has no oil installations in the Pacific, Jova is forecast to make landfall on an area of the Mexican coast popular with tourists.

Sources: National Hurricane Center, WSI, Associated Press, Reuters News, Agence France Presse, CNN.

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Guy Carpenter publishes CAT-i reports for major natural catastrophes worldwide. These reports cover catastrophes including worldwide tropical cyclones, earthquakes, major UK and European floods and any other natural event that is likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email CAT.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Guy Carpenter compiles RISK-i reports for major technological or man-made events worldwide. These reports cover risks to property, transport and life including explosions, fires, crashes, engineering disasters and terrorist attacks that are likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email RISK.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

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