October 24th, 2011

Tropical Storm Rina

Posted at 9:34 AM ET

rina-smallTropical Storm Rina became the seventeenth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season earlier today after it developed in the eastern Atlantic. The storm is currently located around 130 miles (210 kilometers) north-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the border between Nicaragua and Honduras and around 195 miles (310 kilometers) south-southwest of Grand Cayman, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The center of Rina is moving slowly north-northwestward and some strengthening is forecast over the next 48 hours.

Storm Update

According to the NHC, Rina is currently traveling to the north-northwest at 6 miles per hour (9 kilometers per hour) and packs sustained winds of around 40 miles per hour (65 kilometers per hour). On the NHC forecast track, a gradual turn to the west is expected over the next 48 hours, taking the center of Rina north of the northeastern coast of Honduras. Currently, tropical storm force winds extend 90 miles (150 kilometers) mainly from north and west of the storm’s center.

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Hazard data illustrated in the CAT-i map was taken from i-aXs®, Guy Carpenter’s web-based risk management platform. i-aXs users can view impacted areas on any map as well as see how their portfolios were affected. Please contact your broker or GC Analytics (SM) representative for assistance or go to www.i-axs.info for further information.

Warnings and Alerts

A tropical storm watch is currently in place for the coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla eastwards to the Nicaraguan border, indicating that strong winds and heavy rain can be expected in the watch areas within the next 48 hours. Rina is expected to drop 1 to 3 inches (25 - 76 millimeters) of rain along the northeast coast of Honduras, with amounts of up to 5 inches (127 millimeters) possible in some places. The heavy rains could cause flash flooding and mudslides over mountainous terrain. Rina could also drop rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches on the Cayman Islands.

Projected Forecast

The projected forecast sees Rina strengthening to become a category 1 hurricane by Friday, as it approaches Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. Several long term forecast models show Rina moving into the Gulf of Mexico after moving through the Yucatan Peninsula. However, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding Rina’s projected long term track at this time and forecasters say it is too early to tell whether the storm will threaten oil installations in the Gulf of Mexico.

Sources: National Hurricane Center, WSI, Associated Press, Reuters News.

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Guy Carpenter publishes CAT-i reports for major natural catastrophes worldwide. These reports cover catastrophes including worldwide tropical cyclones, earthquakes, major UK and European floods and any other natural event that is likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email CAT.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

Guy Carpenter compiles RISK-i reports for major technological or man-made events worldwide. These reports cover risks to property, transport and life including explosions, fires, crashes, engineering disasters and terrorist attacks that are likely to incur a significant loss to the (re)insurance industry. Please email RISK.i@guycarp.com if you wish to be added to the free email distribution list.

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