October 28th, 2011

Week’s Top Stories: October 22 - 28, 2011

Posted at 11:00 AM ET

Update: Floods in Thailand: Thailand has experienced its worst flooding in 50 years over the last few months, leaving more than 360 people dead and causing severe damage across the country, according to reports. Hundreds of thousands of homes have been destroyed or damaged and the floodwaters have severely disrupted manufacturing operations in central regions of the country. The floodwaters are now threatening the capital of Bangkok. Reports said the flooding has affected 61 of Thailand’s 77 provinces, from Chiang Mai in the north to parts of Bangkok.

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Update: Hurricane Rina: Hurricane Rina, the seventeenth named storm and sixth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, is currently located approximately 115 miles (190 kilometers) south of Cozumel in Mexico and around 95 miles (150 kilometers) east-northeast of Chetumal, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm has unexpectedly weakened over the last 18 hours and currently packs sustained winds of around 75 mph (120 kmph), equivalent to a weak category 1 hurricane.

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Predictive Modeling Where You Need It Most: Taming the “long tail” beast has never been easy, and reinsurance intermediaries - including Guy Carpenter - have long focused on helping cedents quantify these risks. For events that happen only infrequently but come with severe financial consequences, planning, mitigation and measurement of outcomes can be notoriously difficult.

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Managing Catastrophe Model Uncertainty: Uncertainty is ever present in the insurance business, and despite relentless enhancements in data gathering and processing power, it is still a large factor in risk modeling and assessment. This fact, driven home by recent model changes and unexpected natural catastrophes, can be disconcerting - even frightening - to industry participants.

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Reinsurance Capital, Analytics and Market Intelligence: Three Parts of a Successful Renewal: A year busy with global catastrophe activity will undoubtedly affect the January 1, 2012 reinsurance renewal. Whether high catastrophe losses around the world will counteract the effective management of capital remains to be seen and many factors will be brought forward on both sides of the negotiating table. Cedents are well-positioned to renew at favorable rates and conditions, as long as they bring the right information to bear. The savvy use of analytics and market intelligence can make a significant difference in the cost of cover. It pays to be prepared.

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And, you may have missed…

Micro Risk Management:  Risk, if left unmanaged by people with low incomes, may render their attempts to exit poverty more difficult. It may also increase the likelihood of a return or new entrance to poverty for those who hover just above the poverty line, and may increase the chances of personal loan default for the minority of low-income individuals with current access to microcredit (small value loans usually provided to help the entrepreneurial poor to develop microenterprises).

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