February 29th, 2012

Verification of Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Western North Pacific and Number of Tropical Cyclones in South China and the Korea and Japan Region in 2011

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Since 2000, City University of Hong Kong has been issuing real-time predictions of the annual number of tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting the western North Pacific. Verifications of the predictions have shown that the predictions are mostly correct within the error bars. The organization also began to predict the number of TCs making landfall in South China and the Korea and Japan region in 2009 and 2010 respectively. These are all statistical predictions with predictors drawn from a large group of indices that represent the atmospheric and oceanographic conditions in the previous year up to the spring of the current year. This report reviews the success of the predictions.

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