January 28th, 2013

GC Capital Ideas Stories on Emerging Markets

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

GC Capital Ideas has published several stories recently on emerging markets and how pursuit of them may contribute to profitable growth. We highlight several of the articles here.

How Guy Carpenter Can Help: Catastrophe Risks in Developing Economies: Guy Carpenter is uniquely positioned to help clients successfully grow their business in emerging markets. Our GC Global Analytics and Advisory team offers services and solutions that include industry-leading risk analytics, strategic and technical advice and capital advisory.

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Increased Flood Loss Potential: Making use of all available tools and practicing comprehensive exposure management will both strengthen (re)insurers’ ERM practices and allow them to make informed risk management and reinsurance decisions as they enter new markets. Certainly, flood risk is prevalent and increasing in almost every developing economy. Recent studies by Swiss Re and the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development suggest flood loss potential will grow as emerging economies continue to prosper.

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Flood Risks in Emerging Markets: Despite such important model limitations for earthquakes, the lack of modeling solutions for flood risks poses an even greater threat to (re)insurers. As illustrated by Figure 7 below, flood risk is poorly modeled at a global level by the three main modeling companies, particularly in developing countries where flooding is a regular occurrence.

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Catastrophe Models: Implications of Emerging Market Growth on the (Re)insurance Sector: Natural disaster risk assessment relies on probabilistic catastrophe models and historical data. The three main catastrophe modeling companies, AIR Worldwide, EQECAT and Risk Management Solutions, have therefore traditionally created modeling solutions for perils and territories considered to be peak risks. Although each modeling company has in recent years launched products for countries outside the more established markets of the United States and Western Europe, several gaps in coverage remain, particularly in emerging markets.

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Implications of Emerging Market Growth: ERM: Although improvements in ERM practices meant (re)insurers were better prepared for the major catastrophes of 2010 and 2011 than those in 2005, the global nature of these losses has prompted some companies to review their perception of risk. This international loss trend, along with insurance growth in emerging market regions, is driving the need for better and more comprehensive tools for modeling risk.

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