The Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), a joint initiative of Guy Carpenter and City University of Hong Kong, today released its fourth annual report presenting the findings of the GCACIC’s research activities from the past year. The report details the findings of 22 projects conducted by the GCACIC, which focus on climate problems in the Asia-Pacific region as well as on a global scale.
The annual report showcases the results and conclusions drawn from each of the projects undertaken by the GCACIC in 2012. This year’s report examines pressing climate issues ranging from typhoon activity and seasonal prediction of extreme droughts and floods, to the impact of local air pollution on climate.
Key areas of focus highlighted in the report include:
- Tropical Cyclones: The report highlights the examination of typhoon prediction, including the possibility of real-time dynamical seasonal forecasting of typhoon activity, as well as the possibility of using pre-season sea-surface temperature to predict typhoon activity. GCACIC also investigates how typhoon activities (genesis, intensity, track and landfall) can be modified by atmospheric oscillations.
- Global Circulation: On a global scale, GCACIC sought to analyze circulation trends by examining how moisture transport anomalies in the Asia-Pacific region modified rainfall, and also established the climatology and characteristics of Northern Hemisphere blocking events. Specifically, one project demonstrates how blocking events over Ural-Siberia are crucial to understanding cold weather in China.
- Modeling and Prediction: GCACIC continued to run both global and regional models in order to better understand global scale climate phenomena, as well as to develop capabilities to perform downscaling predictions of precipitation. More specifically, this year’s report includes highlights of the development of a multi-model-based seasonal prediction system for extreme droughts and floods, and a six-month lead downscaling prediction of winter-spring drought based on a multi-model ensemble.
- Air Quality: This year’s report also highlights GCACIC’s heightened emphasis on the study of air quality. Several studies focused on this area in 2012, including an investigation into how local and regional air pollution can affect local and regional climate, both from a measurement and modeling perspective.
Professor Johnny Chan, Director, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, said, “Natural catastrophes and climate risks continue to pose a significant threat to the Asia-Pacific region. The Centre remains fiercely dedicated to its mission of understanding climate perils through enhancing our research and arming the industry with actionable intelligence to better anticipate, prepare for and mitigate the potentially devastating impacts of climate-related phenomena.”
James Nash, CEO of Asia Pacific Region, Guy Carpenter & Company, added, “Through the Centre’s dedicated initiative, we are able to provide the resources needed to better understand global climate patterns in the Asia-Pacific region and around the world. This year’s report continues to push the borders of investigation by studying climate issues both on a regional and global scale, understanding that the risks of climate-related perils are of the upmost importance to the global insurance industry and our customers everywhere.”