Archive for October, 2013
Rapidly developing computer technologies and the unrelenting evolution of cyber risks present one of the biggest challenges to the (re)insurance sector today. Liabilities from cyber attacks and threats to the data security of cloud computing and social media have become key emerging risks for carriers. The unprecedented rise in cyber attacks, in addition to the threat cyber risk poses to global supply chains, has seen the cyber insurance market grow significantly in recent years.
The Tohoku rupture of 2011 changed the market’s understanding of seismic risk in Japan. The Mw 9.0 event occurred in an area where earthquakes of up to only Mw 8.4 were thought possible. Following the event there was increased publicity surrounding the so-called Tokyo Fragment theory and discussion around the potentially increased probability of earthquakes near Tokyo.
The (re)insurance sector is today operating in a rapidly changing and uncertain risk landscape. Against this backdrop, it is important that (re)insurers attempt to identify and understand emerging risks to plan for the long term and challenge assumptions about the future risk landscape environment.
Executive teams adapting to the changing dynamics of the specialty insurance and global reinsurance markets in an environment of excess capital, growing influence of convergence participants, low investment returns and diminishing reserve releases are presented with a series of strategic dilemmas and opportunities.
The recent completion by legacy solution specialists of a number of acquisitions in the live insurance space could be a watershed moment for the standalone run-off market. The original business concept of a run-off manager was a pure focus on legacy business - to achieve finality in legacy claims and manage the outstanding book of legacy business in the same cost efficient way that an insurer would manage a renewal book of business.
Uncertainty in Catastrophe Models: How Much of it is Reasonable? It seems reasonable to expect a degree of uncertainty in catastrophe model results. It is not uncommon, however, for models to produce results that differ by several factors. In order to assess how much of this uncertainty is epistemic, due to our incomplete knowledge of the physical phenomena involved, this existing uncertainty needs to be quantified.
Risk Transfer Demand: Are the insurance and reinsurance industries adequately serving their clients in the transfer of risk? The question is a timely one because much recent discussion has focused on the entry of new capital into the industries and its effect on capacity and pricing. Regulatory and economic conditions have also concentrated minds on capital optimization, with reinsurance playing an increased role in risk finance that may have deflected attention from the fundamental business of protecting against risk.
Guy Carpenter Insights on A.M. Best’s 2013 Updates: A.M. Best has recently issued several insurance ratings updates. Guy Carpenter has reviewed those updates and has key insights to help companies better understand their potential impact.
The Reserve Cycle: In 2012 the insurance industry enjoyed more reserve releases, but many sources say that the releases of the last decade will soon run out. But when? Most insurance commentary reports on the reserve cycle but does not often attempt to explain why it exists. If we can understand the drivers of the cycle, we can do better in predicting where we are and where we are going.
Guy Carpenter Reveals Findings of Damage Survey in Sandy-Impacted Northeast: Guy Carpenter & Company released a comprehensive assessment of the damage resulting from Superstorm Sandy, highlighting meteorological aspects of the storm and detailed observations of some of the most severely impacted areas across the Northeast.
And, you may have missed…..
Achieve Meaningful Scale in Reinsurance: In a reinsurance market with abundant excess capital and where most reinsurance programs are oversubscribed, the need for a meaningful line size or differentiated underwriting contribution has never been more relevant.
Jessica Leong, Lead Casualty Specialty Actuary
In 2012 the insurance industry enjoyed more reserve releases, but many sources say that the releases of the last decade will soon run out. But when? Most insurance commentary reports on the reserve cycle but does not often attempt to explain why it exists. If we can understand the drivers of the cycle, we can do better in predicting where we are and where we are going.
Georg H. Fülles, Head of European Casualty Strategy and Morley Speed, Managing Director
Reinsurance buyers in Continental Europe have complained for decades about an imbalance between property lines and casualty lines in the depth of knowledge and services offered by brokers. Reinsurance broking has predominately been driven by expertise in property lines and, particularly, in the natural catastrophe area. Guy Carpenter has recently closed this gap with its new Casualty Solutions Group (CSG).