Uncertainty in Catastrophe Models: How Much of it is Reasonable? It seems reasonable to expect a degree of uncertainty in catastrophe model results. It is not uncommon, however, for models to produce results that differ by several factors. In order to assess how much of this uncertainty is epistemic, due to our incomplete knowledge of the physical phenomena involved, this existing uncertainty needs to be quantified.
Risk Transfer Demand: Are the insurance and reinsurance industries adequately serving their clients in the transfer of risk? The question is a timely one because much recent discussion has focused on the entry of new capital into the industries and its effect on capacity and pricing. Regulatory and economic conditions have also concentrated minds on capital optimization, with reinsurance playing an increased role in risk finance that may have deflected attention from the fundamental business of protecting against risk.
Guy Carpenter Insights on A.M. Best’s 2013 Updates: A.M. Best has recently issued several insurance ratings updates. Guy Carpenter has reviewed those updates and has key insights to help companies better understand their potential impact.
The Reserve Cycle: In 2012 the insurance industry enjoyed more reserve releases, but many sources say that the releases of the last decade will soon run out. But when? Most insurance commentary reports on the reserve cycle but does not often attempt to explain why it exists. If we can understand the drivers of the cycle, we can do better in predicting where we are and where we are going.
Guy Carpenter Reveals Findings of Damage Survey in Sandy-Impacted Northeast: Guy Carpenter & Company released a comprehensive assessment of the damage resulting from Superstorm Sandy, highlighting meteorological aspects of the storm and detailed observations of some of the most severely impacted areas across the Northeast.
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Achieve Meaningful Scale in Reinsurance: In a reinsurance market with abundant excess capital and where most reinsurance programs are oversubscribed, the need for a meaningful line size or differentiated underwriting contribution has never been more relevant.