December 2nd, 2013

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: November 2013

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. Super Typhoon Haiyan: Super Typhoon Haiyan meets or surpasses the record of the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in recorded history, and is among the strongest ever recorded. Haiyan made landfall during the early morning hours of November 8 near Guiuan, with estimated 1-minute wind speeds of 185-195 mph (300-315 km/hr).

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2. Demand for Asia Pacific Catastrophe Reinsurance at a Record High in 2013: Total Asia Pacific catastrophe limit purchased in 2013 increased for the tenth year in a row, but once again failed to keep pace with strong gross domestic product growth in the region, according to a new report released today by Guy Carpenter.

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3. The Reality of Global Warming: The increase in the global mean air temperature, as compared to the 1951-1980 average, is depicted in Figure F-2, and the surge in average oceanic heat content for the 0-700 meter layer is depicted in Figure F-3. The increase in oceanic heat content in particular is notable as it takes a very large amount of energy to heat such a volume of water.

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4. Cyber Risk and its Impact on Supply Chains: Cyber risks are not isolated and are usually connected to other risks. Many companies that are exposed to cyber risks are, for example, also exposed in turn to risks to their supply chain. Due to technological innovation and advances, many parts of a company’s or industry’s supply chain have become interconnected and automated. Technology is indeed a critical enabler of a supply chain’s operations. Therefore a cyber attack has the potential to put an entire company’s supply chain at risk. Cyber security and supply chain risk management must therefore be considered in conjunction with one another.

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5. Guy Carpenter Extends Coverage of Industrial Park Database to Include Vietnam, Malaysia and South Korea:  In 2011, Thailand experienced its worst flooding in years with insured losses estimated at around USD15 billion, of which the Thai General Insurance Association attributed more than 90 percent arising from commercial risks located within industrial parks. As industrial parks are common in several countries in the region, Guy Carpenter developed a database of digitized boundaries of these parks to support its clients’ ability to analyze the potential for catastrophic losses arising from exposures located within park boundaries.

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6. New Geographic Markets to Drive Profitable Growth in 2014, According to Second Annual Guy Carpenter Survey:  Expansion into new geographic markets, new products and access to new distribution channels will be the primary drivers of profitable growth in 2014, according to a new survey released today by Guy Carpenter.

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7. Indexation Clauses in Liability Reinsurance Treaties:  A Comparison Across Europe: The Indexation Clause - otherwise referred to as the Stability Clause, Inflation Clause or Severe Inflation Clause - is designed to maintain the real monetary value of the retention and (where applicable) the limit under a long-tail excess of loss reinsurance treaty over the duration of the claims payout pattern.

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8. Risk Profile, Appetite and Tolerance:  Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness:  Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

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9. Uncertainty in Catastrophe Models: How Much of it is Reasonable?  It seems reasonable to expect a degree of uncertainty in catastrophe model results.  It is not uncommon, however, for models to produce results that differ by several factors.  In order to assess how much of this uncertainty is epistemic, due to our incomplete knowledge of the physical phenomena involved, this existing uncertainty needs to be quantified.

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10. Chart: Guy Carpenter Global Rate on Line Index, January 2013: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Reinsurance Rate on Line index fell marginally at the January 1, 2013, renewal. This is the seventh consecutive annual renewal in which changes to the index have equaled 10 percent or less, indicating a global market with capacity appropriate to meet demand.

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