A recent study shows it is possible to use a regional climate model to more accurately predict the number of tropical cyclone formations compared to predictions based solely on a global climate model.
The global Climate Forecast system is used by the Regional Climate Model, Version 3 as initial boundary conditions for a dynamic downscaling model to predict the number of tropical cyclone formations and the number of landfalls with a lead time of one to six months. The tentative forecast suggests fewer than average tropical cyclones will make landfall in East Asia in 2014 for the months June through November.
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