December 26th, 2014

Week’s Top Stories: December 20 — 26, 2014

Posted at 8:00 AM ET

The Reinsurance Evolution Continues: Executive Summary: During the past twelve months, capital has continued to flow into the reinsurance markets in the form of both insurance-linked securities (ILS) and collateralized reinsurance transactions. This report examines the growth in the ILS market during the past year and some of the important evolutionary elements of catastrophe bond structure and risk transfer. We also explore how the use of capital markets-based capacity provides cost savings for public entities by helping them build surplus, reduce public debt and limit the risk that natural perils can pose to the state’s balance sheet. As collateralized markets continue to increase in importance as an alternative to both traditional reinsurance and ILS, Guy Carpenter has taken an active role in analyzing counterparty risk and developing specific structures and strategies to manage this risk. This report also provides an overview of the manner in which Guy Carpenter assists its clients in managing counterparty risk and limiting credit exposure.

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Understanding Emerging Risks: Imperative for the Future: The downside focus of risk measures highlights what could be a key problem with the debate around emerging risks - when people think about risk they only consider the downside. Cars, penicillin, fossil fuels, the internet - all of these were once emerging risks, and they have caused global destruction through car accidents, antibiotic resistance, climate change, and now, possibly through cyber risk. But they have also brought far better travel, longer and much healthier lives for almost everyone, affordable electricity for people in their own homes, and an explosion of information on a scale never seen before available freely at the click of a button.

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Cyber-attacks and Terrorism Revealed as Top Emerging Risks for 2015, According to Annual Guy Carpenter Survey: Cyber-attacks and terrorism are ranked among the top emerging risks concerning the (re)insurance industry in the year ahead, according to a survey released by Guy Carpenter. According to the findings, new products, expansion into new geographic markets and access to new distribution channels will be the primary drivers of profitable growth in 2015.

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Terror Developments: Some may question why terrorism risk has a place in a document dedicated to emerging risk. Terrorism as a form of violence to promote cause or promote change is one of the original human conflicts. The wind blows and the earth shakes much the same way now as it has for hundreds, thousands of years. However, terrorism as a risk and a peril has evolved over the years and is a current concern in all parts of the world. Given the growing population, regional conflicts producing a broad list of potential instigators, the expansive reach of social media for extremists spreading their messages and recruiting and the diversity of possible attack modes to cause human and economic loss, terrorism does qualify as an emerging risk. With this contemporaneity in mind, we will discuss terrorism as an example of an emerging risk that is being aggravated by changes in geo-political events and in the continued notable challenges in modeling its ever changing underlying complexities.

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Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line index is presented for 1990 through 2014.  The index fell by 11 percent at January 1, 2014.

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And, You May Have Missed…

The Insurance Risk Benchmarks Research: Insights for the Industry and the E&S Market: The Insurance Risk Benchmarks Research is an ongoing project sponsored by Guy Carpenter & Company and Oliver Wyman to assist property/casualty companies with profiling enterprise risk. Articulating an individual company’s risk profile requires assessment of both absolute and relative financial uncertainties. The absolute uncertainties can ultimately be codified in an economic capital model, but robust review of relative historical performance invariably improves the codification of certain systemic risks.

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Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.


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