January 6th, 2015

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: Fourth Quarter, 2014

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line index is presented for 1990 through 2014.  The index fell by 11 percent at January 1, 2014.

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2. Cyber-attacks and Terrorism Revealed as Top Emerging Risks for 2015, According to Annual Guy Carpenter Survey: Cyber-attacks and terrorism are ranked among the top emerging risks concerning the (re)insurance industry in the year ahead, according to a survey released by Guy Carpenter. According to the findings, new products, expansion into new geographic markets and access to new distribution channels will be the primary drivers of profitable growth in 2015.

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3. Guy Carpenter and Oliver Wyman Publish Annual Insurance Risk Benchmarks Research: Guy Carpenter and Oliver Wyman, both wholly owned subsidiaries of Marsh & McLennan Companies, released the 2014 Insurance Risk Benchmarks Research: Annual Statistical Review, the first in a two-part series detailing research executed in collaboration with Columbia University. This, the fourth annual report, provides detailed analysis and insight on the property/casualty industry to help insurers strategically evaluate and benchmark inputs to economic capital models.

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4. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

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5. Guy Carpenter Announces New Cyber Product Launch: Guy Carpenter announced the launch of a new cyber privacy and network protection solution designed to meet the unique cyber challenges faced by small- and medium-sized companies.

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6. Understanding Emerging Risks: Executive Summary: (Re)insurers today face a degree of change and uncertainty that appears to be evolving at an ever quickening pace. Guy Carpenter has published a report, Ahead of the Curve: Understanding Emerging Risks, highlighting emerging risks facing the (re)insurance sector, including cyber-attacks, terrorism and new compensation structures for long-term bodily injuries. The report seeks to identify and categorize these risks that are now confronting the sector, as well as analyze their implications on businesses and (re)insurers.

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7. Casualty Catastrophe Risk Modeling: Casualty (or liability based) catastrophes have become increasingly frequent and severe over the past decade, exposing (re)insurers to much more risk than they may have realized and reserved for. One root cause can trigger a chain reaction that can bleed balance sheets and even imperil solvency. Until recently, casualty carriers had little choice but to accept this risk as losses emerged.

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8. Chart: Catastrophe Bonds Versus Various Other Capital Market Assets Classes: Chart shows the cumulative return profile of 144A catastrophe bonds (as a proxy for all capital markets-based risk transfer capacity) versus various other capital market asset classes through mid-year 2014

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9. Historical Development of Cyber (Re)Insurance: Companies are uncertain of how much coverage to acquire and whether their current policies provide them with protection. One of the roots of the uncertainty stems from the difficulty in quantifying potential losses because of the dearth of historical data for actuaries and underwriters to model cyber-related losses. Furthermore, traditional general liability policies do not always cover cyber risk. In the United States, ISO’s revisions to its general liability policy form consist primarily of a mandatory exclusion of coverage for personal and advertising injury claims arising from the access or disclosure of confidential information.

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10.  A.M. Best’s New Analytics Will Broaden and Improve P&C Industry Capital Modeling and Benchmarking of Tolerances:  A.M. Best’s rating analytics continue to evolve and the pace of change is accelerating as the industry embraces more analytical tools, emerging best practices, and peer benchmarking.

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Securities orinvestments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

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