July 15th, 2015

Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre Publishes 2015 Predictions for Tropical Cyclone Formations and Landfalls

Posted at 4:45 PM ET

The Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), a joint initiative of the City University of Hong Kong and Guy Carpenter, and the School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, today released their 2015 predictions for tropical cyclone formations and landfalls.

The region is currently experiencing El Niño conditions that are predicted (with more than a 90 percent probability) to continue through the Fall of 2015, as stated in the June 11, 2015 advisory from the Climate Prediction Centre (NOAA/U.S.). Consistent with El Niño years, the prediction shows fewer than average tropical cyclone landfalls in the Western North Pacific Basin, especially in the southern part of the region.

The GCACIC Regional Climate Model Forecast predicts 19.9 tropical cyclone formations for the period June through November, 2015. The same model forecasts a landfall of 10.3 tropical cyclones in the time period. (The forecasts are based on an ensemble of simulations, which explains the fractional number of formations and landfalls.)

The briefing compares the GCACIC forecasts for formation and landfall with the 2000-2010 averages from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The GCACIC Regional Climate Model overall, predicts fewer formations and landfalls than the JTWC earlier period averages.

“Climate change will continue to impact the fast developing Asia-Pacific region in significant ways,” said James Nash, CEO of Asia-Pacific Region, Guy Carpenter. “We will push forward under the Centre’s mission, as we have since 2009, to understand changing weather patterns and their impact to our communities and our business.”

In addition, GCACIC also released the sixth annual report presenting the highlights of its research curriculum from the past year. The report details the findings of 18 projects conducted by the GCACIC, which focuses on climate issues in the Asia-Pacific region as well as on a global scale.

Click here to read the briefing: 2015 Western North Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclone Predictions >>

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