September 2nd, 2015

Guy Carpenter Completes Development of Probabilistic European Hail Model

Posted at 3:45 AM ET

Guy Carpenter today announced the completion of the final phase in the development of its pioneering probabilistic European hail model. The enhancements to the G-CAT® Hail Model expand the number of countries covered by the model to include Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Spain and Switzerland.

Guy Carpenter released the first probabilistic hail model for Austria, Germany, Italy, Poland and Slovenia in 2014. With completion of the final development phase, in addition to extending its geographical coverage, the updated model also incorporates an improved event set generation methodology. Further, the hail database, which underpins the model, has been enhanced with the inclusion of additional claims data from insurers across the modelled territories.

The G-CAT Hail Model includes a unique approach to producing historic hail tracks using a global lightning detection system, LINET, and algorithms developed by atmospheric research firm nowcast GmbH. Commenting on the new event set generational methodology, Mark Weatherhead, Head of Catastrophe Model Development at Guy Carpenter said, “The new technique is based on the hail footprints developed from nine years of historic lightning data. This new event set accurately reproduces hail event frequency and intensity by month shown by historic data and is corroborated by evidence from scientific literature on the subject.”

The model generates stochastic event footprints, which are supplemented with historic scenario footprints for a number of major recent hail events, each of which has been verified through comparison with event footprints generated from insurance hail claims data. The vulnerability module is based on a comprehensive claims database containing over 500,000 individual claims collected from 33 insurers across the modelled region.

Commenting on the ever-increasing threat posed by hail events in Europe, Max Strasser, Project Leader for the G-CAT Hail Model, said, “Hailstorm events in Europe have accounted for some of the largest losses in the region in recent years. Most recently, we witnessed the impact of hail and windstorm Ela, which affected a number of countries including Germany, France, Belgium and Austria and generated hailstones in excess of seven centimeters in diameter (2.8 inches). By providing this pioneering probabilistic hail model and extending its geographical reach we hope to greatly expand our understanding of these catastrophic events.”

Matthew Eagle, Head of International Analytics for Guy Carpenter, added, “Our G-CAT Hail Model offers our clients a unique means to identify their potential accumulations of insured risks exposed to hail at both a country-level as well as across their entire European portfolio. The advances in the model demonstrate once again how Guy Carpenter is constantly seeking ways to expand the boundaries of what is possible in terms of modelling capabilities and enhancing the level of service delivery to its clients.”

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