Other countries, such as the Philippines and Indonesia, have instituted rules that may, conversely, impede the development of a healthy, profitable insurance market. The Indonesian regulator’s recent steps to reduce capital outflows, with a focus on reinsurance premiums ceded to international reinsurers, remain highly debated and will be explored in greater detail later. The Philippines, in addition to a risk-based capital (RBC) framework, has instituted a minimum paid-up capital requirement (starting in 2006 and revised in 2013) that increases every two years and will result in a PHP2 billion (approximately USD44 million) minimum threshold in 2020. This will put minimum capital levels in the Philippines well above those of more developed markets, including Australia, Japan and Singapore. The policy applies uniformly across the industry regardless of premium volume, line of business or geographic scope and therefore its impact is more strongly felt by smaller carriers that will most likely be forced out of the market or into the arms of larger players. The Philippines Insurer and Reinsurer Association (PIRA) has been outspoken against the minimum capital requirement and stated a preference for a standalone RBC metric.

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Guy Carpenter & Company today announced the appointment of Susanne Miller-van der Schild as Managing Director, Guy Carpenter Benelux, effective February 1.

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Asia Pacific is a diverse mix of countries encompassing nearly one-third of the earth’s landmass and more than one half of its population. Given the broad spectrum of economic and regulatory sophistication across the region, the approach to insurance regulation has varied on a country-by-country basis as each regime adapts solvency principles to their own needs and political realities.

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The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) has stipulated that “the solvency framework of the U.S. system of state-based Insurance regulation has included a review of the holding company system for decades, with an emphasis placed on each insurance legal entity. In light of the 2008 financial crisis and the globalization of insurance business models, as discussed in this report, U.S. insurance regulators have begun to modify their group supervisory framework and have been increasingly involved in developing an international group supervisory framework (1).”

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Guy Carpenter Reports Stable Capital at January 1, 2016 Renewals: Guy Carpenter & Company reports that overall capital levels dedicated to reinsurance have stabilized, showing no growth for the first time in several years.  In a highly competitive environment, companies assessed broader opportunities and the rate of incoming capital slowed. However, moderate loss experience kept capacity at abundant levels for the January 1, 2016 renewals. The continued scarcity of costly catastrophe losses and more than adequate capacity led to reinsurance pricing reductions, although there are signs the rate of descent is slowing as compared to 2015.

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Developments in Europe: Challenges for European Companies: Apart from still open Solvency II third-country equivalence issues, which will be discussed in detail later, European insurance companies struggle with different interpretations of the European Insurance Occupational Pension Authority (EIOPA) guidelines and rules. For example, while sovereign debt is considered risk-free in the Standard Formula, EIOPA recommended in April 2015 that internal model firms need to consider the spread risk of sovereign debt. However, local supervisors have not interpreted this guidance in the same way - the United Kingdom’s Prudential Regulatory Authority, France’s Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution and Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority are asking their internal model firms to fully risk-weight sovereign bonds at the group level.

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Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2016: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2016.

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Microinsurance Consortium and Venture Incubator Announces New Name: The Microinsurance Consortium, led by a group of leading companies in the insurance industry, announced a new name for their microinsurance venture incubator (MVI) - Blue Marble Microinsurance. The consortium consists of American International Group, Inc., Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited, Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC together with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd., Old Mutual plc, Transatlantic Reinsurance Company, XL Catlin, and Zurich Insurance Group.

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Guy Carpenter Establishes EMEA Advisory Council: Guy Carpenter announced the establishment of a new EMEA Advisory Council to support its growth plans in the region.

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And, You May Have Missed…

Businesses and Their Exposures: Small and Medium-Sized Businesses: The picture for small to medium-sized enterprises or SMEs in the United Kingdom is broadly consistent with that for larger firms, but for this segment of companies, (re)insurers see a higher incidence of cyber crime. For example, a small broker was targeted by a phishing scam, where an e-mail containing a link to malicious software was sent to the financial controller within the business. The controller was tricked into installing the software onto his personal computer, and this software was used to steal banking credentials. The cyber criminals were subsequently able to complete electronic wire transfers to the total of GBP100,000 over the following 10 days.

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The regulatory system in the United States has best been described as a national system of state-based regulation consisting of state insurance departments from all 50 states, the District of Columbia and five territories (1). Although there have been questions raised about the system and challenges to it over the years, its regulation remained primarily within the purview of the state regulators through the protection afforded under the McCarran-Ferguson Act of 1945, which expressly provided that “Acts of Congress” that do not expressly purport to regulate the “business of insurance” will not preempt state laws or regulations that regulate the “business of insurance.”

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Apart from still open Solvency II third-country equivalence issues, which will be discussed in detail later, European insurance companies struggle with different interpretations of the European Insurance Occupational Pension Authority (EIOPA) guidelines and rules. For example, while sovereign debt is considered risk-free in the Standard Formula, EIOPA recommended in April 2015 that internal model firms need to consider the spread risk of sovereign debt. However, local supervisors have not interpreted this guidance in the same way - the United Kingdom’s Prudential Regulatory Authority, France’s Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution and Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority are asking their internal model firms to fully risk-weight sovereign bonds at the group level. Other supervisors are proposing a “light” approach of risk-weighting of sovereign debt, while Italy and Spain maintain the position that sovereign bonds should remain risk-free under Pillar 1.

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Guy Carpenter today announced the establishment of a new EMEA Advisory Council to support its growth plans in the region.

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From one of GC Capital Ideas’ more popular categories, we highlight the top Chart Room stories viewed during the year of 2015:

1. Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2015: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2015.

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2. Q1 Cat Bond Issuance Reaches Historic Volume: Chart presents the 144A P&C catastrophe bond issuance from 1998 through the first quarter of 2015. The first quarter is particularly active in terms of issuance for the P&C cat bond market and this characteristic continued into 2015 as USD1.49 billion of 144A P&C cat bond limit was successfully placed with investors, the highest first quarter volume in history.

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3. Return On Equity For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Q1 2015: Chart presents return on equity for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through first quarter 2015.

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4. Combined Ratio For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Q3 2015: Chart presents combined ratio for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through third quarter 2015.

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5. Private Cat Bond Market, First Half, 2015: Chart shows the private catastrophe bond market with USD 753.1 million of limit placed in rule 4(2) private placement format via fifteen transactions in the first six months of 2015. The 2015 year-to-date volume exceeded total full-year issuance in 2014 of USD 561.5 million.

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*Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

Here is a look back at the top CAT-i stories for the year 2015.

1. 7.8 Mw Earthquake - Lamjung, Nepal: Nepal experienced a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on April 25, followed by two major aftershocks on April 25 and 26 of magnitude 6.6 and 6.7, respectively, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Media reports indicate at least 5,582 fatalities, 11,200 injuries, and at least eight million people affected. Infrastructure and transportation routes have been severely disrupted and food and water shortages are of great concern. The USGS PAGER service estimates most probable economic losses between USD1 and USD10 billion. It is clear from media reports that impacts have been widespread and of excessive severity and our first thoughts and concerns are with the millions affected by this tragic event.

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2. Typhoon Soudelor: Typhoon Soudelor made landfall in Hualien County, Taiwan at about 05:00 CST Saturday (21:00 UTC Friday), with one-minute sustained winds of 120 mph (195 kilometers per hour) according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Soudelor brought excessive rainfall and strong winds to Taiwan, causing inland flooding, mudslides and reports of widespread damage.

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3. Winter Storm - January 26 - 28, 2015: The intense coastal storm is now clearing Atlantic Canada and steadily weakening. Blizzard and winter storm warnings have been discontinued, although winter weather advisories remain for select areas of New England. This storm lived up to expectations as an intense, impactful, and historic coastal storm, despite challenges on the forecast track and the especially sharp edge of the snow shield. Blizzard conditions with snowfall amounts of two to three feet affected a widespread area of New England and wind gusts exceeded hurricane force in some areas. The strong winds also produced a storm surge with greatest severity to coastal Massachusetts.

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4. 8.3 Mw Earthquake Near Illapel, Chile: Chile experienced an 8.3-magnitude earthquake on September 16, followed by dozens of aftershocks, including one at magnitude 7.0 and seven at magnitude 6.0 or above. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the earthquake occurred near the coast of Coquimbo, about 46 kilometers (29 miles) west of Illapel at 19:54 local time. A tsunami warning was issued for the entire coast of Chile but has since been lifted. Initial media reports indicate at least 11 fatalities, although emergency crews are still accessing affected areas. The earthquake has forced more than one million people to evacuate from their homes and electrical power was cut off to 240,000 households. Heavy waves following the earthquake caused flooding in coastal towns although most buildings were reported to hold up well. The USGS pager service estimates most probable economic losses between USD 100 million and USD 1 billion. Our first thoughts and concerns are with those directly affected by this event.

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5. U.S. Texas and Oklahoma Flooding: Another round of heavy thunderstorms and intense rainfall affected the Southern Plains over the weekend. This follows a month of excessive rainfall in the area, with frequent periods of organized and slow-moving intense thunderstorms. Widespread and severe flooding has affected many areas, including flash flooding in both the Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth areas. Many area rivers have yet to crest after the last round of heavy rainfall.

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6. Hurricane Patricia: Hurricane Patricia made landfall on the Pacific Coast of Mexico as a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Patricia was a compact storm, and made landfall in an area of relatively low population density. Reported impacts in the immediate landfall area are severe. However, the track and compact nature of Patricia appears to have spared Puerto Vallarta, Manzanillo and Guadalajara from the most severe impacts, according to media reports.

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7. U.S. South Carolina Flooding: Torrential rainfall in South Carolina led to catastrophic flooding throughout the state over the weekend, claiming the lives of at least nine people. Large swaths of the state have experienced over 20 inches of rain in the past week with another two to six inches forecasted through Monday, according to the state climatologist.

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8. Tropical Storm Bill: Tropical Storm Bill made landfall at about 11:45 CDT (16:45 UTC) yesterday on Matagorda Island, Texas, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Maximum sustained winds at landfall were 60 mph according to the NHC. Bill inflicted storm force winds, a storm surge of at least three feet and heavy rainfall to an area still saturated from the excessive rains of last month.

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9. Valley and Butte Wildfires - United States: Central and Northern California, two wildfires have consumed over 133,000 acres and destroyed at least 750 homes and ten businesses in a matter of days. The fires have altogether displaced at least 23,000, according to media sources, and a state of emergency has been declared for affected areas by Governor Jerry Brown. Nearly 6,400 firefighters have been mobilized to combat the two fires, according to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC).

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10. Winter Storm - December 26 - 29, 2015: A complex frontal system has rendered significant impacts to the Southern, Southwestern, and Midwestern States, with an ongoing threat from the Midwest to the Saint Lawrence Valley to the Northeast. The system brought severe thunderstorms to the Northern Gulf states, with a confirmed EF-4 tornado affecting the Dallas area, causing several fatalities and extensive structural damage. Excessive rainfall has produced significant and historic flooding in the Central Mississippi Valley. Significant winter weather including heavy snow and ice continues to threaten areas from the Midwest to the Northeast, after nearly 40 inches of snowfall in New Mexico and over half an inch of ice reported from Texas to Illinois. Significant power outages have been reported for some areas. Transportation disruption has been especially severe for both land and air.

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