Archive for May, 2016



May 31st, 2016

Reserving and Capital Setting: Background and Challenges

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Loss reserves are arguably one of the most difficult risks to estimate and monitor. In fact, inadequate pricing and deficient loss reserves have been the leading cause of property/casualty company impairments. According to A.M. Best, from 1969 to 2009 they triggered approximately 40 percent of all impairments - four times more than those emanating from natural catastrophes (1). There are many uncertainties in managing long-tailed, heavily legislated lines of business that can be triggered from emerging risks. Unforeseen inflation and anticipated legislative changes over a 10 to 30 year period present many demands. In order to prepare for emerging risk scenarios, future trends and related uncertainties need to be explicitly identified, contemplated and estimated.

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May 30th, 2016

GC Capital Tip: Find It With The Tag Cloud

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The “tag cloud” is the list of keywords on the side of every GC Capital Ideas page. Each keyword is a tag used on this website. Clicking a tag in the tag cloud is the same as clicking a tag at the end of an article: it brings you to a list of articles on a particular subject. In the tag cloud, you’ll see that some words are shown with a larger font. Font size indicates the number of articles on which a tag is used.

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May 27th, 2016

Week’s Top Stories: May 21 - 27, 2016

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2016: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2016.

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Cyber Risk: As businesses, both large and small, throughout all sectors of industry, become more and more reliant on technology to improve service efficiencies and functionalities, cyber risk has become one of the most pressing public topics addressed in corporate boardrooms and by governments across the globe. The corresponding awareness of a business’s susceptibility to a cyber-attack has grown along with a spate of high-profile attacks. Consequently, cyber risk is now an embedded feature of the global risk landscape, not only as a privacy/network liability, which is where much of the publicity has arisen, but also as a peril affecting traditional insurance lines. Therefore, preventative and post-event remediation are gaining importance as shareholders, regulators and rating agencies are increasingly focused on enterprise risk management activities for cyber risks.

Read the article>>


Guy Carpenter Forms Strategic Alliance to Develop Cyber Aggregation Model: Guy Carpenter & Company announced the formation of a strategic alliance with Symantec Corporation, a global leader in cyber security, to create a cyber aggregation model. The model will include a comprehensive catalogue of cyber scenarios from which insurers can derive frequency and severity distributions to measure the potential financial impact of loss from both affirmative cyber coverages and “silent” all-risk policies where cyber is the peril, but no cyber exclusions exist.

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GC Securities* Completes Catastrophe Bond Queen Street XII Re dac on behalf of Munich Re: GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities LLC, a U.S. registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC, announced the placement of a single class of Principal At-Risk Variable Rate Notes (”Notes”) with a principal amount of USD 190,000,000 through the newly formed designated activity company (”dac”) domiciled in Ireland, Queen Street XII Re dac, to benefit Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft Aktiengesellschaft in München (”Munich Re”).  This is the largest issuance of the eleven issuances in Munich Re’s Queen Street series since 2011 and the second largest issuance of all Munich Re’s Queen Street series. Additionally, Queen Street XII Re dac is the first special purpose vehicle authorized for the purposes of Directive 2009/138/EC (as amended) (”Solvency II Directive”) in the 144A catastrophe bond market.

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Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

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And, You May Have Missed…

Insured Versus Uninsured Loss: There are a number of factors that contribute to the gap between economic loss and insured loss and as new risks emerge such as climate change and political risk, this gap will only continue to widen.

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*Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities LLC, a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities LLC, MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product.

May 26th, 2016

Chart: Regional Property Catastrophe ROL Index, 1990 to 2016

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The chart shows the indexes for United States, United Kingdom, Asia Pacific and Europe.

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May 25th, 2016

Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2016

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2016.

Continue reading…

May 24th, 2016

GC Securities* Completes Catastrophe Bond Queen Street XII Re dac on behalf of Munich Re

Posted at 5:28 AM ET

GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities LLC, a U.S. registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC, today announced the placement of a single class of Principal At-Risk Variable Rate Notes (”Notes”) with a principal amount of USD 190,000,000 through the newly formed designated activity company (”dac”) domiciled in Ireland, Queen Street XII Re dac, to benefit Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft Aktiengesellschaft in München (”Munich Re”).  This is the largest issuance of the eleven issuances in Munich Re’s Queen Street series since 2011 and the second largest issuance of all Munich Re’s Queen Street series. Additionally, Queen Street XII Re dac is the first special purpose vehicle authorized for the purposes of Directive 2009/138/EC (as amended) (”Solvency II Directive”) in the 144A catastrophe bond market.

Continue reading…

May 23rd, 2016

Cyber Risk

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

ross_christopher-smChristopher Ross, Managing Director

Contact

As businesses, both large and small, throughout all sectors of industry, become more and more reliant on technology to improve service efficiencies and functionalities, cyber risk has become one of the most pressing public topics addressed in corporate boardrooms and by governments across the globe. The corresponding awareness of a business’s susceptibility to a cyber-attack has grown along with a spate of high-profile attacks. Consequently, cyber risk is now an embedded feature of the global risk landscape, not only as a privacy/network liability, which is where much of the publicity has arisen, but also as a peril affecting traditional insurance lines. Therefore, preventative and post-event remediation are gaining importance as shareholders, regulators and rating agencies are increasingly focused on enterprise risk management activities for cyber risks.

Continue reading…

May 20th, 2016

Week’s Top Stories: May 14 - 20, 2016

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

Guy Carpenter Forms Strategic Alliance to Develop Cyber Aggregation Model: Guy Carpenter & Company announced the formation of a strategic alliance with Symantec Corporation, a global leader in cyber security, to create a cyber aggregation model. The model will include a comprehensive catalogue of cyber scenarios from which insurers can derive frequency and severity distributions to measure the potential financial impact of loss from both affirmative cyber coverages and “silent” all-risk policies where cyber is the peril, but no cyber exclusions exist.

Read the article>>


Stochastic-based BCAR: Do You Understand Your “Capital-print”?: Technology and innovation continue to change the world around us, creating both opportunities and new challenges for the (re)insurance industry. Advances in risk quantification such as predictive analytics and capital modeling, to name a few, are changing the way we underwrite, price and manage risk. Similarly, technology is allowing A.M. Best (Best’s) to advance the analytics of risk supporting its assessment of balance sheet strength. Taking advantage of stochastic modeling technology, the evaluation of risk within Best’s capital model is undergoing a fairly substantial overhaul to broaden the lens used to analyze risk relative to capital. The technology allows efficient production of multiple capital metrics adjusted for a range of risk levels rather than risk represented by just one data point, providing deeper insights into balance sheet strength, risk profile and risk appetite.

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Risk Analytic Tools: Public sector-related data can be expansive, containing census data, property risk characteristics, historical loss information, risk rating matrices and natural hazard event scientific tracking. In order to facilitate packaging the sometimes unwieldy data in a way that is useful for risk decision making, utilizing outside resources to improve data transparency can be valuable. Public sector resources devoted to building tools that measure risks that are perceived as “uninsurable” can unlock private sector funding.

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Fort McMurray Wildfires - Canada: Recent rainfall and cooler temperatures have helped to reduce spread of the wildfire that recently rendered devastating impacts to Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada. Nevertheless, the fire continues to grow outside the city and has now claimed 2,020 square kilometers (790 square miles), according to media reports. A general trend of cooler temperatures is expected through this week, before another warming trend next weekend.

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Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article>>


And, You May Have Missed…

Escalating Medical Costs: The impact of rising healthcare expenses has been and will continue to be felt around the world, in developed and undeveloped nations alike. Rising healthcare costs are putting a strain on governments worldwide. Nowhere in the world, however, are expenses as high as they are in the United States, where the impact extends into the medical component of workers compensation costs. Although the rate of growth has seen some stability, it still outpaces the US growth rate of inflation. The figure below illustrates that per capita spending in the United States in 2010 was over USD 8,000. A key driver for higher US costs is that it spends more on hospital care and medical specialists. Hospital costs are 60 percent higher in the United States than in other Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development countries. Spending on the use of specialists is more than two times higher. Forecasters believe this trend will increase.

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May 19th, 2016

Risk Analytic Tools, Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

In addition to internal risk management, models are typically used in risk transfer negotiations. Both traditional and alternative risk markets require extensive analysis of portfolios when considering risk transfer. Sharing a portfolio’s standardized model output is critical to imparting the loss potential of a particular portfolio from which risk-capital can be unlocked to support the risk financing needs of a reinsurance buyer. Using technology is critical when partnering governments with the private sector. Whether partnering with developed or emerging economies, these tools bring together the risk knowledge and historical data of the public sector with risk management techniques of the insurance industry. The result is an enhanced understanding of risk that provides stability and attracts partners.

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May 18th, 2016

Risk Analytic Tools, Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Public sector-related data can be expansive, containing census data, property risk characteristics, historical loss information, risk rating matrices and natural hazard event scientific tracking. In order to facilitate packaging the sometimes unwieldy data in a way that is useful for risk decision making, utilizing outside resources to improve data transparency can be valuable. Public sector resources devoted to building tools that measure risks that are perceived as “uninsurable” can unlock private sector funding.

Continue reading…