Archive for January, 2017



January 31st, 2017

Public Sector Risk Financing Perspectives – Terror Risk: Part III

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

emma-karhan-smEmma Karhan, Managing Director

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The (re)insurance industry needs to be more proactive in understanding and defining the boundary and extent of insured loss along with understanding the types of targets that have a higher probability of attack. Data in the Global Terrorism Database (1) identifies small businesses, retailers, tourist attractions and transportation hubs as increasingly likely targets, not iconic targets such as New York’s World Trade Center, in 2001. These smaller and less iconic targets are typically more vulnerable to the evolving type of terrorism attack (marauding arms, small explosives) that, while causing smaller direct physical damage and losses, still have the potential for significant contingent losses.

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January 30th, 2017

Public Sector Risk Financing Perspectives – Terror Risk: Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

emma-karhan-smEmma Karhan, Managing Director

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The dynamic of pricing decrease and oversupply of capital has also been driven by the industry’s need to diversify into non-natural catastrophe lines of business in the current economic environment, and the fact that the terror market has a loss ratio of almost zero percent. In 2015, Swiss Re’s Sigma report calculated that 27 terrorist events resulted in 1082 fatalities, but no insured losses. Unlike other lines of business, recent pricing and capacity trends have not been driven by a better technical understanding of the impact of losses that normally translates into improved peril understanding or advances in pricing or modeling techniques. This has generally inhibited the industry from expanding its product base for terrorism in line with the evolution of the peril, concentrating more on supporting the pools and the current established bounds of insurable loss.

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January 27th, 2017

Week’s Top Stories: January 21 - 27, 2017

Posted at 7:30 AM ET

Public Sector Risk Financing Perspectives - Pandemic Risk: Public entities’ use of capital markets-based risk transfer capacity for the assumption of natural disaster losses, such as the cost of emergency relief and infrastructure and property damage has demonstrated success in de-risking public sector balance sheets. Capital markets innovators are beginning to leverage the outcomes achieved in the natural disaster sphere to other types of public sector severity losses, notably pandemic diseases. The capital markets may help fund resources to rapidly contain the spread of a pandemic, share the burden of associated medical expenses and/or manage the financial impact of the higher mortality rates.

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Guy Carpenter Reports Moderating Reinsurance Pricing Decline at January 1, 2017 Renewals: Guy Carpenter & Company reports the decline in reinsurance pricing moderated at the January 1, 2017 renewal across most classes of business and geographies, as compared to the past three renewal seasons.  Several sectors experienced increased loss activity, which had only a localized impact on pricing while capacity remained plentiful. After remaining fairly stable in 2015, dedicated reinsurance capital increased by 5 percent from January 1, 2016 to January 1, 2017 as calculated by Guy Carpenter and A.M. Best. The convergence capital segment increased by 10 percent.

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Chart: Top Ten Significant Insured Loss Events: 2016: The table lists the latest estimates for the top ten significant insured loss events for 2016.

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Survey: Geopolitical Risk Is Now a Top Concern for Finance Professionals: Geopolitical risk is having a bigger impact on earnings than ever before - and senior management and boards are taking notice.

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U.S. SCS Outbreak January 20-22, 2017: A significant severe weather outbreak has affected areas from East Texas to the Florida Peninsula to South Carolina. These severe thunderstorms were enabled in an especially favorable environment to produce reports of tornadoes, hail and nontornadic wind gusts. One significant tornado has been confirmed by the National Weather Service to affect areas of Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Probable significant tornadoes have also been reported in South Georgia. Significant property damage has been reported for areas affected by these tornadoes. Media reports also indicate downed trees and powerlines with light property damage in areas affected by other weaker tornadoes and nontornadic wind gusts.

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And, You May Have Missed…

Chart: Which Emerging Risks Do (Re)insurers See as the Biggest Threat to Profitable Growth?: Chart highlights the result of a survey taken of 107 insurance and reinsurance professionals conducted by Guy Carpenter at the 2016 annual meeting of the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America when asked which emerging risks will be the biggest threat to profitable growth.

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January 26th, 2017

Public Sector Risk Financing Perspectives – Terror Risk: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

emma-karhan-sm1Emma Karhan, Managing Director

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The (re)insurance industry should look towards closing the gap between economic and insured terror losses.

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January 25th, 2017

Public Sector Risk Financing Perspectives – Pandemic Risk

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

cory-anger-small-sqCory Anger, Global Head of ILS Structuring, GC Securities*

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Public entities’ use of capital markets-based risk transfer capacity for the assumption of natural disaster losses, such as the cost of emergency relief and infrastructure and property damage has demonstrated success in de-risking public sector balance sheets. Capital markets innovators are beginning to leverage the outcomes achieved in the natural disaster sphere to other types of public sector severity losses, notably pandemic diseases. The capital markets may help fund resources to rapidly contain the spread of a pandemic, share the burden of associated medical expenses and/or manage the financial impact of the higher mortality rates.

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January 24th, 2017

Public Sector Risk Financing Perspectives in Asia Pacific: Part II: Highlights of Recent Initiatives

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

graham-jones-smGraham Jones, Senior Vice President

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In July 2016, the China Residential Earthquake Insurance Pool (CREIP) was jointly established by the China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) and Ministry of Finance. In development since 2014, the scheme consists of 45 insurers distributing policies with basic limits of USD 7,500 and USD 3,000 for urban and rural residents, respectively. Coverage up to a maximum limit of USD 150,000 is negotiable. The claims process has been simplified with payouts equaling zero, 50 or 100 percent of the policy limit based on five damage levels.

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January 23rd, 2017

U.S. SCS Outbreak January 20—22, 2017

Posted at 3:13 PM ET

us-local-storm-outbreak-jan-20-22-2017-local-report-sm1A significant severe weather outbreak has affected areas from East Texas to the Florida Peninsula to South Carolina. These severe thunderstorms were enabled in an especially favorable environment to produce reports of tornadoes, hail and nontornadic wind gusts. One significant tornado has been confirmed by the National Weather Service to affect areas of Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Probable significant tornadoes have also been reported in South Georgia. Significant property damage has been reported for areas affected by these tornadoes. Media reports also indicate downed trees and powerlines with light property damage in areas affected by other weaker tornadoes and nontornadic wind gusts. At least 19 fatalities have been reported by the media, and our first thoughts and concerns are with those directly affected by this event.

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January 23rd, 2017

Public Sector Risk Financing Perspectives in Asia Pacific: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

graham-jones-smGraham Jones, Senior Vice President

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According to United Nations estimates, 54 percent of the world’s population lives in Eastern, Southern and Southeastern Asia. The region hosts 778 million urban inhabitants and seven out of the world’s top ten most populated cities. The region is also home to every major peril - from cyclone to tsunami - and has experienced some of the world’s largest catastrophes based on economic loss. While there are natural catastrophes all over the world, Asia is a unique confluence of people and perils.

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January 20th, 2017

Week’s Top Stories: January 14 - 20, 2017

Posted at 7:30 AM ET

Chart: Top Ten Significant Insured Loss Events: 2016: The table lists the latest estimates for the top ten significant insured loss events for 2016.

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Further Considerations on the Hurricane “Shield” Theory: A recent New York Times article titled “Conditions That Form More Hurricanes Also Protect U.S., Study Finds” notes a hurricane “shield” for the U.S. coast during busy hurricane seasons. The article, based on recent research by James Kossin, provides valuable insight, including some notes of caution from other experts in the field, but the observations should be treated with a moment of pause.

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Guy Carpenter Reports Moderating Reinsurance Pricing Decline at January 1, 2017 Renewals: Guy Carpenter & Company reports the decline in reinsurance pricing moderated at the January 1, 2017 renewal across most classes of business and geographies, as compared to the past three renewal seasons.  Several sectors experienced increased loss activity, which had only a localized impact on pricing while capacity remained plentiful. After remaining fairly stable in 2015, dedicated reinsurance capital increased by 5 percent from January 1, 2016 to January 1, 2017 as calculated by Guy Carpenter and A.M. Best. The convergence capital segment increased by 10 percent.

Read the article>>


Global Risks Report 2017: The Global Risks Report 2017, produced by the World Economic Forum with support from Marsh & McLennan Companies and other partners, was published. Now in its twelfth edition, the report provides insights into the key global risks facing businesses as well as the collective view of risk experts in all sectors as to the most significant threats to global prosperity over the next decade. The Global Risks Report 2017 will inform discussions at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

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Public Sector Risk Financing Perspectives in Latin America: Globally, three of the ten most costly natural disaster events in the last 35 years occurred in total or in part in the Latin America/Caribbean region. As the region’s population, urbanization and gross domestic product concentration continues to grow, the effects of climate volatility are likely to further increase the impact of natural perils losses on economies that are already struggling. We are just now assessing the losses from Hurricane Matthew in the Caribbean. The ultimate costs of these catastrophe event responses causes a strain on public balance sheets and an increase in public debt, ultimately burdening taxpayers.

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And, You May Have Missed…

Chart: Return On Premiums For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Q3, 2016: Chart presents return on premiums for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2005 through third quarter, 2016.

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January 20th, 2017

Survey: Geopolitical Risk Is Now a Top Concern for Finance Professionals

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

2017risksurvey_cover-thumbnail-smGeopolitical risk is having a bigger impact on earnings than ever before — and senior management and boards are taking notice.

According to the 2017 Association for Financial Professionals Risk Survey, supported by Marsh & McLennan Companies, 49 percent of finance professionals believe their organizations are exposed to greater earnings uncertainty than they were three years ago.

In addition, 52 percent of Treasury & Finance functions are considering the impact on their organization’s growth expectations due to a geopolitical event. That’s no surprise given that 46 percent say their C-suite and board were concerned about geopolitical risk in 2016.

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