June 27th, 2017

North Atlantic Basin Tropical Storm Outlook for 2017: Normal to Above Average: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

As hurricane season begins in the North Atlantic Basin, several agencies have produced seasonal outlooks of 2017 tropical activity including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), The Weather Company (TWC/IBM) and Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (CSU) (1). These seasonal outlooks give a sense of overall expected activity for the basin at large but do not estimate the number of landfalls. These agencies stress the need for readiness for a landfalling hurricane, as with any hurricane season.

A season of near- to above-normal tropical cyclone activity is expected. The NOAA outlook is for 11 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin (with 70 percent probability of occurrence), compared to long-term averages of 11.3, 6.1 and 2.5, respectively. Factors contributing to the forecast include reduced chances of El Niño development through the peak of hurricane season and warming sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic.


Link to Part II>>

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1. Sources:

a. The Weather Company, 2017: NOAA Predicts Above-Average 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. www.weather.com, accessed May 30, 2017.

b. Climate Prediction Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: NOAA 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. Issued May 25, 2017.

c. Klotzbach, P., 2017: Extended Range Forecast of 2017 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity. Colorado State University. June 1, 2017.

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