May 17th, 2018

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Here we bring together our recent multi-part series on model resilience by Guy Carpenter’s Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler, Imelda Powers.

Since commercial catastrophe (CAT) models were first introduced in the 1980s, they have evolved as new scientific discoveries and claims insights emerged. Despite the sophisticated nature of each new generation of CAT models, occasionally a model misses a significant loss driver for a particular peril. This occurs when a previously hidden attribute reveals itself through unprecedented intensity. Lessons from such surprises stimulate model improvements as our understanding of the physics of the peril and its damage potential, increase. Through this process, models mature over time.

Part I >>

Part II >>

Part III >>

Part IV >>

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