January 7th, 2019

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: Fourth Quarter, 2018

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. A Math Formula May Offer a Solution to Insurers’ Critical Challenges: Guy Carpenter has developed a methodology that applies a mathematical formula to provide insurers and reinsurers with a unified, practical framework for risk pricing and capital allocation.

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2. Cost of Capital and its Use in Valuing Reinsurance: Increasingly, reinsurance is seen as an important element of capital management. Reinsurance decisions are moving away from the reinsurance buyer and towards the finance teams. These teams need to find a way of comparing reinsurance in a straightforward way. Defining the cost of capital for reinsurance means that it can be compared with other capital sources.

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3. Affirmative versus Silent Cyber: An Overview: While the current debate over “affirmative” versus  “non-affirmative” coverage has been ongoing for a few years, WannaCry and Petya/NotPetya cyberattacks helped make the issue of ”silent cyber” more critical. These two 2017 cyberattacks effectively shifted the conversation from data breach, notification costs and third-party liability to first-party liability insuring agreements due to the extent and expanse of the systematic, large-scale damages they triggered.

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4. Baden-Baden Reinsurance Symposium Explores Market Impact of Global (Re)insurance Composites: Guy Carpenter hosted the Reinsurance Symposium in Baden-Baden on October 21, the 10th year that Guy Carpenter has hosted the event. The theme of the Symposium was “Back to the past: a return to global composites.”

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5. Wildfire Activity - California - Update: Recent wildfire activity has rendered especially severe impacts to areas of California, including areas of Butte, Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Rates of extreme fire spread were enabled by especially dry, windy conditions on November 8 and the days following. Aggressive firefighting efforts allowed containment efforts to progress despite adverse conditions over the following week. Periods of heavy rainfall have recently allowed firefighting crews to bring the last of the fires to 100 percent containment over the last week. The Camp, Woolsey and Hill Fires have burned an estimated 20,297 structures since November 8, including at least 13,972 residential structures from the Camp Fire alone, according to Cal Fire statistics. These fires have also claimed at least 91 lives.

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6. Facultative or Treaty and Why the Need for Hybrid Solutions - GC@PCI Commentary: Insurers face challenges in managing underwriting, capital protection, risk and risk profiling as they navigate underwriting guidelines based on their gross and net risk underwriting appetite. Against these challenges, companies utilize various forms of reinsurance, traditionally facultative or treaty, to buy risk protection, shore up capital and satisfy rating agencies, according to Jeff Fleming, Managing Director, Guy Carpenter.

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7. Cyberattacks Top the List of Risks in North America: For business executives in the United States and Canada, cyberattacks are now the number one risk to doing business, according to the recent World Economic Forum (WEF) report Regional Risks for Doing Business 2018.

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8.Hurricane Michael: Hurricane Michael made landfall on October 10 as a high-end Category-4 hurricane on the Florida Panhandle, with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. The storm rendered severe to complete damage to areas from Panama City to Port Saint Joe, with especially severe damage in Mexico Beach due to severe wind and storm surge.

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9. Increasing Frequency of Extreme Weather Events in Asia Pacific: The Asia Pacific may be the most adversely impacted region by the pronounced increase in the frequency of extreme weather events around the world. The Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Catastrophe Report 2017 projects an increase in economic losses from natural disasters in Asia, which amounted to USD 126 million a day between 2006 to 2015.

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10. Terrorism: The Need for Expanded Capacity: Terrorists are increasingly able to modify, adapt and reinvent their tactics and quickly spread their methodologies to their worldwide support base. Economically, the effect of this change across the globe has been significant. Tourism, trade and investments are examples of areas affected as countries grapple with terrorist actions, both direct and indirect. According to the Institute for Economics and Peace, although the peak of global economic impact from terror events was reached in 2014, it remains at historically high levels.

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