March 13th, 2019

GC Capital Ideas Covers Modeling Developments

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

GC Capital Ideas presents a review of our recent stories covering modeling for various perils.

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Since commercial catastrophe (CAT) models were first introduced in the 1980s, they have evolved as new scientific discoveries and claims insights emerged. Despite the sophisticated nature of each new generation of CAT models, occasionally a model misses a significant loss driver for a particular peril. This occurs when a previously hidden attribute reveals itself through unprecedented intensity. Lessons from such surprises stimulate model improvements as our understanding of the physics of the peril and its damage potential, increase.

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Flood Risk Challenges in Asia: Flood is one of the most significant natural catastrophe perils, globally accounting for nearly 40 percent of all catastrophe events. In 2017, floods accounted for nearly half of the natural catastrophe events and 65 percent of natural catastrophe deaths in the world - two thirds of the deaths occurring in Asia. According to the Lloyd’s City Risk Index, which examines flood risk as a percentage of gross domestic product, nine of the top 10 cities at risk are located in Asia.

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Data and Analytics Support Innovations in Flood Risk Management: Flood risk and its impact on communities are global concerns. Advances in data quality coupled with expanding model development and computational power leads to increasingly accurate risk evaluation for (re)insurer portfolio analyses and underwriter risk analyses - with a concomitant increase in policyholder risk awareness. Guy Carpenter and sister company Marsh are harnessing new tools to facilitate clients’ risk management decisions surrounding this challenging peril.

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Terrorism Risk Modeling Poses Challenges: Terrorism risk modeling methods have been continually updated since leading modeling companies AIR Worldwide and Risk Management Solutions released their first terrorism models in 2002. Quantifying the economic, insured and human losses from terrorist attacks poses major challenges for insurers, reinsurers and alternative capacity providers.

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