April 3rd, 2019

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: First Quarter, 2019

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. Reinsurance Rate Movement Limited At January 1 Despite Uncertainty Over Pricing Adequacy And Available Capital:  The overall impact of catastrophe losses on property rates was muted at the January 1, 2019 reinsurance renewals, but the fourth highest annual catastrophe loss year on record did create questions over pricing adequacy, underwriting strategy and the amount of capital available, says Guy Carpenter.

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2. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2019.

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3. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2019.

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4. Chart: Top Risks Expected To Increase In 2019: The chart lists the top ten risks expected to deteriorate in 2019 across five areas of concern highlighted in this year’s Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS). The results of GRPS are analyzed in the 14th edition of the Global Risks Report, prepared by the World Economic Forum with the support of Guy Carpenter’s parent company, Marsh & McLennan Companies. The chart shows the percentage of respondents who are concerned about each risk.

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5. Cost Of Capital And Its Use In Valuing Reinsurance: Increasingly, reinsurance is seen as an important element of capital management. Reinsurance decisions are moving away from the reinsurance buyer and towards the finance teams. These teams need to find a way of comparing reinsurance in a straightforward way. Defining the cost of capital for reinsurance means that it can be compared with other capital sources.

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6. Blockchain Today: A Young Technology That Could Change Everything: Today, blockchain technology is about where the Internet was in the early 1990s. It’s an exciting and important technology but one that is still in its fledgling stage. The truth is, similar to how people were trying to figure out the Internet in the early 1990s, no one really knows exactly how it will revolutionize economies and cultures. But we do know-much like the Internet in the early 1990s-that blockchain is going to be a game changer.

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7. Building For Resilience: How To Avoid A Catastrophe Model Failure: Since commercial catastrophe (CAT) models were first introduced in the 1980s, they have evolved as new scientific discoveries and claims insights emerged. Despite the sophisticated nature of each new generation of CAT models, occasionally a model misses a significant loss driver for a particular peril. This occurs when a previously hidden attribute reveals itself through unprecedented intensity. Lessons from such surprises stimulate model improvements as our understanding of the physics of the peril and its damage potential, increase. Through this process, models mature over time

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8. Affirmative Versus Silent Cyber: An Overview: While the current debate over “affirmative” versus  “non-affirmative” coverage has been ongoing for a few years, WannaCry and Petya/NotPetya cyberattacks helped make the issue of “silent cyber” more critical. These two 2017 cyberattacks effectively shifted the conversation from data breach, notification costs and third-party liability to first-party liability insuring agreements due to the extent and expanse of the systematic, large-scale damages they triggered.

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9. Sydney Hailstorms, December 20, 2018: A severe convective storm affected large parts of New South Wales, including Sydney, the Central Coast and Wollongong from 4:00 to 7:00 pm on December 20, 2018. The storm generated large hail, damaging winds and flash flooding in many areas of the state.

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10.  Chart: Evolution Of The Sidecar Market: Chart presents the evolution of sidecar capacity compared with the Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index, 2005 - 2018.

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