May 17th, 2019

Week’s Top Stories: May 11 - 17, 2019

Posted at 10:00 AM ET

A Risk Overview of Wildfire: Today, the frequency and severity of wildfires are garnering greater attention-not only from the media, but also from (re)insurers, catastrophe modelers, mitigation experts and other invested parties. As the industry searches for better understanding of this dynamic risk, Guy Carpenter’s GC Wildfire Diagnostic (SM) helps carriers differentiate and drive profitable growth using a bespoke selection of innovative, technology-based tools and services that span the disciplines of underwriting strategy, analytics and risk transfer.

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Flood Risk Challenges in Asia: Flood is one of the most significant natural catastrophe perils, globally accounting for nearly 40 percent of all catastrophe events. In 2017, floods accounted for nearly half of the natural catastrophe events and 65 percent of natural catastrophe deaths in the world - two thirds of the deaths occurring in Asia. According to the Lloyd’s City Risk Index, which examines flood risk as a percentage of GDP, nine of the top 10 cities at risk are located in Asia.

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Chart: Combined Ratio for Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Year-End 2018: Chart presents combined ratio of the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2005 through year-end 2018.

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The Middle East and North Africa Risks Landscape: The results of climate inaction are becoming increasingly clear. The year 2018 was the fourth warmest on record. In the MENA region, Algeria had the hottest temperature - 51.3ºC - ever reliably recorded across the whole of Africa, and Oman recorded a minimum temperature of 42.6ºC. Rising temperatures led the United Nations to warn that melting ice sheets were causing sea-level rise to accelerate. The World Bank identified 24 port cities in the Middle East and 19 in North Africa at particular risk of rising waters.

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A Dynamic Approach to Managing Life Reinsurance Arrangements: The traditional life reinsurance model typically involves perpetual treaties linked to an underlying product. In order to create alignment between the contracting parties, the treaty would follow the underlying terms of the product. However, the treaty structure may concurrently include provisions that reduce alignment between the insurer and reinsurer, to the insurer’s detriment. This approach is often wrapped in the reinsurer’s “value proposition” - providing services to support the pricing, underwriting and claims management of the underlying product.

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And, you may have missed….

Methodological Considerations in the Statistical Modeling of Catastrophe Bond Prices: John Major has authored an article that aims to help actuaries, financial analysts, statisticians, data scientists and their clients better investigate how property catastrophe risk, and particularly catastrophe bonds, are  priced.

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