Author Archive



April 26th, 2018

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part IV

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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Valuation Assumptions

There is no database of agreed property, contents or business interruption valuations among vendors or insurers.  Any user’s particular valuation may come from databases of property prices, or rebuild values from claims adjusters and building surveyors. If the model’s assumed valuations are under- or over-estimated, then the damage function may over- or under-compensate in order to balance to historical industry event losses during the model-building process. Consequently, it is important that the user adjust the damage module to reconcile these differences.

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April 25th, 2018

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part III

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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If resources permit, an insurer may carry out additional, micro level model suitability analyses - including a review of model hazards and vulnerabilities using the latest scientific literature and engineering studies. Guy Carpenter’s Model Suitability Analysis (MSA)® framework is designed to guide users through such an analysis.

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April 24th, 2018

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

Contact

Model Suitability Analysis

There is a repertoire of tests, at both the macro and micro levels, to evaluate the merits of a CAT model.  Regardless of resources, insurers should analyze how each test’s result informs their view of risk. Here we review the macro level.

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April 23rd, 2018

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

Contact

Since commercial catastrophe (CAT) models were first introduced in the 1980s, they have evolved as new scientific discoveries and claims insights emerged. Despite the sophisticated nature of each new generation of CAT models, occasionally a model misses a significant loss driver for a particular peril. This occurs when a previously hidden attribute reveals itself through unprecedented intensity. Lessons from such surprises stimulate model improvements as our understanding of the physics of the peril and its damage potential, increase. Through this process, models mature over time.

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April 20th, 2018

Week’s Top Stories: April 14 - 20, 2018

Posted at 10:00 AM ET

Chart: Return on Equity for Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Year-end 2017: Chart presents return on equity for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2005 through year-end 2017.

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Reliance on the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (TRIPRA): In 2017, more than 800 insurers wrote USD 215 billion in TRIPRA eligible premium, with a combined policyholder surplus of USD 683 billion. Considering the current 20 percent deductible requirement and policyholder surplus as a filter, Guy Carpenter’s analysis concludes that small to midsize insurers are substantially more vulnerable to the annual increases in the TRIPRA industry trigger and their overall net retentions as a percentage of policyholder surplus.

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Cyber Insurance Adoption is Increasing: The role of insurance in enhancing cyber resilience is increasingly being recognized by policymakers around the world, and the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development is recommending actions to stimulate cyber insurance adoption. Globally, it is expected the level of future demand for cyber insurance will depend on the frequency of high-profile cyber incidents as well as the evolving legislative and regulatory environment for privacy protections in many countries. In India, for example, there was a 50 percent increase in companies buying cybersecurity coverage from 2016 to 2017.

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Reinsurance Market Assessment: What the Numbers Reveal about the Current Industry Status: After several years of light catastrophe activity, particularly in the United States where capital deployment covering catastrophe exposures was heavily impacted by convergence capital, the events of 2017 provided a framework to evaluate how evolving market dynamics over the last few years held up to the real test of losses.

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Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2018.

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And, you may have missed…..

The Insurance Of Things & Industry 4.0 - A Matrix View: Technological progress and the accumulation of assets have not only stimulated the development of insurance products; they have in turn been nurtured by the availability of these offerings.

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April 19th, 2018

Cyber Insurance Adoption is Increasing

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The role of insurance in enhancing cyber resilience is increasingly being recognized by policymakers around the world, and the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development is recommending actions to stimulate cyber insurance adoption. Globally, it is expected the level of future demand for cyber insurance will depend on the frequency of high-profile cyber incidents as well as the evolving legislative and regulatory environment for privacy protections in many countries. In India, for example, there was a 50 percent increase in companies buying cybersecurity coverage from 2016 to 2017.

A new report from Marsh & McLennan’s Global Risk Center and WomenCorporateDirectors outlines everything directors need to know to position cyber insurance within a comprehensive risk management framework.

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April 18th, 2018

Reliance on the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (TRIPRA)

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

terrorism-rep-connections-banner-2In 2017, more than 800 insurers wrote USD 215 billion in TRIPRA eligible premium, with a combined policyholder surplus of USD 683 billion. Considering the current 20 percent deductible requirement and policyholder surplus as a filter, Guy Carpenter’s analysis concludes that small to midsize insurers are substantially more vulnerable to the annual increases in the TRIPRA industry trigger and their overall net retentions as a percentage of policyholder surplus.

Continue reading…

April 17th, 2018

Chart: Return on Premiums for Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Year-end 2017

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Chart presents return on premiums for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2005 through year-end 2017.

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April 16th, 2018

Chart: Return on Equity for Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Year-end 2017

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Chart presents return on equity for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2005 through year-end 2017.

Continue reading…